JJ, flopped set on nasty board

zepthiir · #1 (**permalink**) 11-21-2007, 07:41 AM

It seems I have been winning a few big hands lately but always in really marginal situations. I cant help but feel I am setting myself up for some big losses by playing like this.

Villian is very loose, 52vpip, my note on him simply says "Plays Ax like its the nuts". I called because his push felt more like weakness than strength, my read was right but still is this the right move?

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $8.60
CO: $9.95
zepth: $13.05
SB: $25.30
BB: $8.10

Pre-flop: (5 players) zepth is Button with

UTG calls, CO raises to $0.2, zepth raises to $0.8, 2 folds, UTG calls, CO calls.

Flop:

($2.55, 3 players)
UTG is all-in $7.8, CO folds, zepth calls.

Turn:

($18.15, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $18.15)

River:

($18.15, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $18.15)

Results:
Final pot: $18.15
UTG shows 6D AD
zepth shows JH JS

MJPerry · #2 (**permalink**) 11-21-2007, 07:50 AM

I call that, if he had a made flush he wouldn't try to push you off the pot like that.

zepthiir · #3 (**permalink**) 11-21-2007, 07:53 AM

yep, thats exactly my thinking, at this level not too many people are clever enough to overbet like that as a fake bluff

jharding666 · #4 (**permalink**) 11-21-2007, 08:11 AM

I don't know if I'd ever fold this

WotaWaster · #5 (**permalink**) 11-21-2007, 09:18 AM

Very, very standard call. Folding here would be a big mistake and infact I would probably call sooner with top set than

.
You have his range crushed and when behind you still win the pot 1/3 of the time with a board pairing.

zepthiir · #6 (**permalink**) 11-21-2007, 09:49 AM

good to have my decision confirmed. It's hard not to be scared of the flush when you see a flop like that

WotaWaster · #7 (**permalink**) 11-21-2007, 10:14 AM

The chance of any player flopping a flush given they start the hand with 2 suited cards is 118-1 (from memory).

I would say at a short handed game never fold a set on the flop fearing a flush (Infact never fold a set on any flop ever wouldnt be the worst starting guideline

) just because even if you are up against a flush you win the hand 33% of the time and by the time you suspect he has a flush you are often getting 2-1 anyway. The all in overbets are very foten the bare A semibluffing anyway.

davidab157 · #8 (**permalink**) 11-21-2007, 01:51 PM

All chips = in pot.

MJPerry · #9 (**permalink**) 11-21-2007, 02:11 PM

All penis = in FaDi's mum.

davidab157 · #10 (**permalink**) 11-21-2007, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MJPerry

All penis = in FaDi's mum.

What, both inches?