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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > Ring Hand Analysis > NL10 88 is it ever worth betting the turn here?

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 10-31-2007, 12:16 PM
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Default NL10 88 is it ever worth betting the turn here?

Nein readen.

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $15.85
MJPerry: $13.85
MP1: $9.55
MP2: $6.15
MP3: $1.85
CO: $8.30
Button: $6
SB: $13.50
BB: $7.60

Pre-flop: (9 players) MJPerry is UTG+1 with
UTG raises to $0.85, MJPerry calls, 7 folds.

Flop: ($1.85, 3 players)
UTG checks, MJPerry checks.

Turn: ($1.85, 3 players)
UTG checks, MJPerry bets $1, UTG calls.

River: ($3.85, 3 players)
UTG checks, MJPerry checks.

Results:
Final pot: $3.85
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 10-31-2007, 01:41 PM
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Maybe the hand converter is messed up?
Calling a 8.5bb raise from a UTG raiser with a 50bb stack is a very unprofitbale call. You have 7 players to act after you who can have JJ+ or AK and reraise.
If the pot goes HU you are basically hoping to flop a set with about 5-1 implied odds (12-1 is the minimum I would look for).

Turn bet is pretty terrible.
A guy raising that much UTG should almost always have TT+ or AQ+ and none of that range folds the turn as played. (maybe AQ/TT with no heart but I wouldn't bank on it).

Low stakes (and mid-high stakes without a read) full ring is simply about making a hand and getting paid off. Moves are few and far between and should be saved for player specific situations.

When you make a bet ask yourself - which worse hands in my opponents range call and which better hands in my opponents range fold? If you can't come up with a large portion in one of those sections you are making a bad bet. This hand I think is one such situation.
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Old 10-31-2007, 02:31 PM
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Incredibly easy fold PF.

Never bet that turn, we played for set value, albeit with horrendous odds. Not only that but like wota said we are almost never folding out a better hand here
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Old 10-31-2007, 02:40 PM
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I gotta agree with the guys, should have been a fold PF. You never want a mid pair against a raise unless there are at least 3 more people in the pot.

IMO it looks like he hit a huge set or had AA and was hoping you hit AQ or AK on the turn and was trying to get you to do all the betting. Only reason he checked the river was the flush scare, otherwise he mightve tried a value bet to tempt you to raise. Usually when someone makes a big raise PF then checks on the flop, they have hit something big or have an overpair, and check to get their opponent to bet into them.
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Old 10-31-2007, 04:32 PM
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ew ew ew

fold pf

he's giving you a free card on the turn, take it and hope you spike a set
if you're gonna bluff at this pot, the river would've been better as it was a big scare card as it made a pair and four flush, but I wouldn't try that.
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Old 10-31-2007, 04:35 PM
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This is kind of bad advice:

Quote:
Originally Posted by azeldin View Post
I gotta agree with the guys, should have been a fold PF. You never want a mid pair against a raise unless there are at least 3 more people in the pot.
You want to play small-mid pairs when you have good odds to stack someone if you make a set or if you think they have a wide raising rnage and your pair will often win unimproved.
If someone makes it 4bb, they generally only raise big pairs and never fold them postflop and you both have 125bb stack it is a very profitbale call with a mid pair, even heads up.


Quote:
Originally Posted by azeldin View Post
IMO it looks like he hit a huge set or had AA and was hoping you hit AQ or AK on the turn and was trying to get you to do all the betting. Only reason he checked the river was the flush scare, otherwise he mightve tried a value bet to tempt you to raise. Usually when someone makes a big raise PF then checks on the flop, they have hit something big or have an overpair, and check to get their opponent to bet into them.
Not true. Good players will always bet when they hit the flop hard. If I raise AK/AA and the flop hasd an A on it I am betting over 90% of the time.
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Old 10-31-2007, 06:11 PM
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nh Wota, i agree totally with the low/mid pocket pairs. You aren't hoping he has AQ when you have 88, you are hoping he has AA, which is a terrible underdog PF, rather than a 50/50. That way, when the 8 hits you have a higher chance of getting his stack. But since you are only 8 to 1 to flop a set (is that right), you need to have implied odds for that, plus some more in case he doesn't follow through with his betting or that he gets an overset occasionally.

Solid advice about betting and bluffing too.
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Old 10-31-2007, 08:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WotaWaster View Post

Not true. Good players will always bet when they hit the flop hard. If I raise AK/AA and the flop hasd an A on it I am betting over 90% of the time.
Exactly, this is why we aren't playing micro stakes wota.
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Old 11-01-2007, 07:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WotaWaster View Post
Maybe the hand converter is messed up?
Calling a 8.5bb raise from a UTG raiser with a 50bb stack is a very unprofitbale call.
I'm really confused by this. According to the hh the effective stack is 138bb, that is plenty to call this raise in position. Add to the fact he's raising UTG and those big raises stink of a huge hand and we've got great implied odds to set mine.

I'd agree with 50bb stacks, but unless I'm blinded by the hangover, $13.8 at nl10 is not 50bb.
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Old 11-01-2007, 08:03 PM
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wota is going crazy
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