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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > Ring Hand Analysis > $400 NL 6max QQ Deep

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 10-23-2007, 11:54 AM
Fish Food
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
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Default $400 NL 6max QQ Deep

Villain in this hand is pretty fairly loose and aggressive. I have stats on him at 30/20 and aggressive over a decent sample, but can't recall any specific history with him. I have a slightly loose, but very aggressive image.

On the flop, he insta-raised pot.


--------------------------

Ultimate Bet - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $382.00
Hero (BB): $784.55
UTG: $873.80
CO: $539.20
BTN: $404.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q Q (5 Players)
UTG raises to $14.00, 3 folds, Hero raises to $44.00, UTG calls $30.00

Flop: ($90) 5 5 8 (2 Players)
Hero bets $68.00, UTG raises to $255.00, Hero ???

--------------------------

If I shove, it would be $486 more to him (and he covers). I suppose calling and seeing a turn is also an option, but you'll have to sell me on that. How often can he have a worse pair like JJ TT 99? AK? 67? Will these hands call a shove?

I get it in normally here without thinking if we started with 100bb, but how does this change (if at all) with 200bb?

Last edited by craigthedeac; 10-23-2007 at 12:28 PM.
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 10-23-2007, 12:19 PM
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You can't recall him showing any hands down? Is there anything else you can tell us about him and/or the table? Has he been bullying people with his big stack? Has he taken any beats lately? Have you and him been fighting for a lot of pots? The reason I ask is because I would make this decision based on feel more than anything else. Based purely on the stats, the guy is certainly capable of check raising with any PP, any draw (67 being the only possible one here) or even on a stone cold bluff. Also, do you know anything about the way this guy sizes his raises? The fact that it's a large raise makes me think it's probably a weaker hand since 88, 5x would probably want to make it around $150-$180 instead. So I guess I'm leaning towards the shove but like I said, I'm playing this one based on how I feel more than anything.
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Old 10-23-2007, 12:28 PM
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If you shove, I can't see many worse hands calling. He may be aggro but does he really call a shove with JJ? I'm not sure with the limited info we have.

Given his aggression, I think folding is too nitty. He's well capable of raising 99-JJ/67/AK/random air, so I think my line is probably call the raise and check the turn, planning to call a shove.

I think calling this raise and folding the turn is pretty bad, so I'd be planning to go with the hand but I'd want him to follow through on a bluff rather than us shoving and letting him fold everything we beat.

EDIT: Is this a good spot to check the flop given the stack sizes? Maybe c/r, and if he gives serious action we know we're beat and can get out with our stack?
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Old 10-23-2007, 12:43 PM
Fish Food
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.McJ View Post
You can't recall him showing any hands down? Is there anything else you can tell us about him and/or the table? Has he been bullying people with his big stack? Has he taken any beats lately? Have you and him been fighting for a lot of pots? The reason I ask is because I would make this decision based on feel more than anything else. Based purely on the stats, the guy is certainly capable of check raising with any PP, any draw (67 being the only possible one here) or even on a stone cold bluff. Also, do you know anything about the way this guy sizes his raises? The fact that it's a large raise makes me think it's probably a weaker hand since 88, 5x would probably want to make it around $150-$180 instead. So I guess I'm leaning towards the shove but like I said, I'm playing this one based on how I feel more than anything.
Thanks. I too rely a lot on feel. At this point in the game, we hadn't tangled at all. Most of my info on him was probably datamined, I don't remember much history between us. Nothing else too significant had happened to my knowledge.

So, assuming he is basically unknown to you other than the stats we have on him, what is your play?

Also, just to note, he is in position in this hand and didn't check-raise. Rather, I bet and he insta-raised the pot.

Last edited by craigthedeac; 10-23-2007 at 12:57 PM.
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Old 10-23-2007, 01:59 PM
Mike McDermott
 
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3bet shoving the flop makes our hand look like QQ+ (maybe KK+).

By calling I think our weakness shown will heighten his chances of bluffing at the turn when checked to. Of course it is disgusting if we call flop and turn is A or K and he shoves on us but that is a risk I'd be willing to take.
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Old 10-23-2007, 04:14 PM
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Tough spot. Being 200bb deep makes a huge difference as this is an auto stack off against described player (and most players) for 100bb.

I think I would push or fold and never call.
Although pushing kind of turns your hand face up and no better hands fold/no worse ones call etc., we can't afford to give him 2 free cards from OOP by calling flop, then checking turn hoping he will bluff.
I think the fact he pots it makes his hand look alot like JJ-AA. I think bluffs usually raise less than this and also feel 88/5x raises slightly less (though I haven't played against this player - 4x may be his standard).

In conclusion: flip a coin Heads = call, tails = fold.
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