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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > Ring Hand Analysis > NL10 - Anyone betting this river?

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Old 10-20-2007, 01:26 AM
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Default NL10 - Anyone betting this river?

Although I caught the low straight I figured his chances for having a Q were to great with his stats and flop call. He seemed like he was drawing and I figured the only way he is really calling a bet on this river is if he has a Q. I did consider a spade draw as well. Anyone think I missed value here?

Villains stats were 77/0/.72 over 60 hands.



PokerStars Game Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10)
Seat 1: mad mallard ($3.45 in chips)
Seat 2: PiS.Gangs ($8.20 in chips)
Seat 3: Candeecards ($2.40 in chips)
Seat 6: KRE8R ($10.20 in chips)
PiS.Gangs: posts small blind $0.05
Candeecards: posts big blind $0.10
PedritoRico: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KRE8R [ ]
KRE8R: raises $0.30 to $0.40
mad mallard: folds
PiS.Gangs: folds
Candeecards: calls $0.30
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Candeecards: checks
KRE8R: bets $0.60
Candeecards: calls $0.60
*** TURN *** [ ] []
Candeecards: checks
KRE8R: checks
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
Candeecards: checks
KRE8R: checks



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Old 10-20-2007, 01:37 AM
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I guess the ultimate question here is what hands are calling a river raise that we beat?
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Old 10-20-2007, 02:54 AM
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Probably not a lot, he's super loose passive so him checking a Q to you twice is never out of the question. Just be happy to see the showdown, there are way better spots to find value.
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Old 10-20-2007, 06:15 AM
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I probably don't bet that flop given his stats and the board. It's so drawy that he figures to have hit it in some way.

Check on turn is good.

I bet this river. His stats suggest he's very unlikely to bluff raise you, so if he does c/r you know it's a Q. He also figures to call with 2 pair hands/sets and other random top pair crap. I'd put in $1.20 or something.
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Old 10-20-2007, 06:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidab157 View Post
I probably don't bet that flop given his stats and the board. It's so drawy that he figures to have hit it in some way.

Check on turn is good.

I bet this river. His stats suggest he's very unlikely to bluff raise you, so if he does c/r you know it's a Q. He also figures to call with 2 pair hands/sets and other random top pair crap. I'd put in $1.20 or something.
I honestly dont see this guy looking me up with much that I beat with the board the way it is. I see betting here as one of those situations where I will usually only get called (or raised) if I am beat and therefore it is safer to check.
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Old 10-20-2007, 08:22 AM
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I play it exactly the same.
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Old 10-20-2007, 08:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidab157 View Post
I probably don't bet that flop given his stats and the board. It's so drawy that he figures to have hit it in some way.

Check on turn is good.

I bet this river. His stats suggest he's very unlikely to bluff raise you, so if he does c/r you know it's a Q. He also figures to call with 2 pair hands/sets and other random top pair crap. I'd put in $1.20 or something.
For once I completely agree with david
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LOL. David "Double Barell" ab157 says check. Check it is.
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Old 10-20-2007, 03:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jharding666 View Post
For once I completely agree with david
For once I completely disagree with both of you!
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Old 10-21-2007, 06:04 PM
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u missed a value bet there imo .. he wouldnt fold two pair here.. look at his stats!!!
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Old 10-21-2007, 06:13 PM
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Yeah check flop and vbet river for 1/2 pot. He doesn't fold any set/2pair hand there imo.
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