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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > Ring Hand Analysis > Aces facing massive overbet

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 09-20-2007, 07:19 PM
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Default Aces facing massive overbet

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

MP2 ($24.65)
MP3 ($13.05)
CO ($42.70)
Button ($21.20)
SB ($33.30)
BB ($25)
UTG ($5)
UTG+1 ($33.80)
MP1 ($44.60)

Preflop: UTG posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG (poster) checks, 3 folds, MP3 calls $0.25, 1 fold, Button raises to $1.25, 1 fold, BB calls $1, UTG folds, MP3 folds.

Flop: ($3.10) , , (2 players)
BB checks, Button bets $1.75, BB raises to $19.75


Hero..??

I know my flop bet was a little weak, someone started talking to me so I just made a continuation bet without looking at pot size

I have AcAs
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Old 09-20-2007, 07:26 PM
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Fold. He's got a set
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Old 09-21-2007, 06:12 AM
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It seemed really weird to me, he had j5 and I paid him off, lesson learned.
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Old 09-21-2007, 06:20 AM
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That really sucks. Did you have any reads on opponent before this hand?
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Old 09-21-2007, 06:45 AM
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None, just sat at the table 10-15 hands ago...

After a lot of debate I put him on a strong draw like 910h
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Old 09-21-2007, 07:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorthTexasEagle View Post
None, just sat at the table 10-15 hands ago...

After a lot of debate I put him on a strong draw like 910h
Even if I could have put him on that, I might have folded. It's about a coinflip at that point and I like to get my money in the middle in a better spot. (But I'm a nit as well)
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Old 09-21-2007, 07:03 AM
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Trouble is you are usually either way behind or slightly ahead.
If you feel he can have Jx/QQ/KK alot then it becomes a call.
If you think he has 2 pair+ or a big draw then it will become a fold.
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Old 09-21-2007, 08:48 AM
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Interesting one.

Reckon you can give him this range? If so it's close to 50/50. I debated putting QJo in it, but trust me some of these donks will do this. Even so, this is about as loose as I think his range will ever be unless you have some other reads on him?

Our pot odds say we need 44% equity, given that range it's a call. I dunno though, I probably fold this until I have decent reads on the guy.

EDITED to fix my retarded maths.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

48,510 games 0.016 secs 3,031,875 games/sec

Board: Jh 8d 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.757% 47.76% 00.00% 23167 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 52.243% 52.24% 00.00% 25343 0.00 { KK-JJ, TdTs, ThTs, 88, 55, KcJc, KdJd, KsJs, QsJs, Jc8c, Js8s, Jc5c, Js5s, Th9h, 8c5c, 8s5s, 7h6h, QcJs, QsJc, Jc8d, Jc8s, Jd8c, Jd8s, Js8c, Js8d, Jc5d, Jc5s, Jd5c, Jd5s, Js5c, Js5d, 8c5s, 8s5c }
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Last edited by davidab157; 09-21-2007 at 08:51 AM.
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Old 09-21-2007, 04:36 PM
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I honestly didn't feel he had QQ or KK

After seriously thinking it through and with all the comments I realize why it's a fold situation unless I know more about the villian.

Ty for input.
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Old 09-23-2007, 09:49 AM
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AA is just a pair, remember that.
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