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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > Ring Hand Analysis > Make this call?

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 04-07-2007, 11:46 PM
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Default Make this call?

UGGGGH...

Villain was a LAG and a half, 80/47.5/2.64 over 30 hands.

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG ($53.45)
MP ($26.60)
CO ($64.35)
Hero ($44.55)
SB ($17.10)
BB ($29.95)

Preflop: Hero is Button with , .
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, CO raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold, MP calls $0.50.

Flop: ($3.25) , , (4 players)
SB bets $16.35 (All-In), MP folds, CO folds, Hero calls $16.35.
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Last edited by wastrel; 04-08-2007 at 12:00 AM.
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 04-08-2007, 03:31 AM
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Well in situation's like this when I have little money invested into the pot and could be drawing dead but most likly almost a coin flop situation. I lay it down and wait for a better spot.

That being said with your read he could be doing this with a wide range of hands, If you call this hand 100 times played exactly the same way from 100 differnt random people I think it would be a losing play.

Because all the times someone has the flush your drawing dead and most the times your ahead it's not by very much since you will be up against flush draw.

Anyone disagree and explain why.

Last edited by ProJecTPokerPro; 04-08-2007 at 03:37 AM.
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Old 04-08-2007, 04:40 AM
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I don't think you should ever consider how much money you have invested in the pot. What you've already called is a sunk cost -- right now you're making an independent decision: should you pay $16.35 for a chance to win $35.20?


I still probably fold, but this player's LAG play makes it closer to being a judgement call. I think you probably have the best hand, but without a strong read I don't think its worth the call. In addition to the flush/flush draw, Villian could have 2 pair or a set -- giving him additional outs if he hits a boat. So the only hands you could feel comfortable about him having are a lower straight, 1 pair, or a pure bluff...
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Old 04-08-2007, 04:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by feint06 View Post
I don't think you should ever consider how much money you have invested in the pot. What you've already called is a sunk cost -- right now you're making an independent decision: should you pay $16.35 for a chance to win $35.20?


I still probably fold, but this player's LAG play makes it closer to being a judgement call. I think you probably have the best hand, but without a strong read I don't think its worth the call. In addition to the flush/flush draw, Villian could have 2 pair or a set -- giving him additional outs if he hits a boat. So the only hands you could feel comfortable about him having are a lower straight, 1 pair, or a pure bluff...

Lets say your at ub .05/.10 nL with 1 million doller's and someone else joins with a million dollers you limp with 3/3 flop comes 2.3/9 the guy moves all in for 1 million with 10 cent's involved are you going 2 call him?

Now lets say you have 200,000 invested and the flop i s 2/3/9 he moves in for 800,00 you gonna call?
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Old 04-08-2007, 05:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ProJecTPokerPro View Post
Lets say your at ub .05/.10 nL with 1 million doller's and someone else joins with a million dollers you limp with 3/3 flop comes 2.3/9 the guy moves all in for 1 million with 10 cent's involved are you going 2 call him?
Assuming no flush is on board, the correct play is to call. The chances of set over set are so slim I'll risk losing a buy-in (if I'm playing with 1 million, I've got another 19 million in my BR). In the long run, I win big here...


Quote:
Now lets say you have 200,000 invested and the flop i s 2/3/9 he moves in for 800,00 you gonna call?
I still call. I'm getting even better odds than the first case...
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Old 04-08-2007, 05:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by feint06 View Post
Assuming no flush is on board, the correct play is to call. The chances of set over set are so slim I'll risk losing a buy-in (if I'm playing with 1 million, I've got another 19 million in my BR). In the long run, I win big here...




I still call. I'm getting even better odds than the first case...
What!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 04-08-2007, 05:12 AM
River Rat
 
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Now lets say you're in the same game and you've got Ah Ad. You make it 800,000 preflop and Villian calls.

Flop is Qs Js 10s.

Villian bets 100,000 and you call

Turn is 9s

Villian goes all-in for the remaining 100,000. Do you call?
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Old 04-08-2007, 05:15 AM
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Interesting cuz he obviously has u beat here. I dont know lol your behind regardless.

Im calling to try and get split straight flush.
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Old 04-08-2007, 11:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ProJecTPokerPro View Post
Well in situation's like this when I have little money invested into the pot and could be drawing dead but most likly almost a coin flop situation. I lay it down and wait for a better spot.

That being said with your read he could be doing this with a wide range of hands, If you call this hand 100 times played exactly the same way from 100 differnt random people I think it would be a losing play.

Because all the times someone has the flush your drawing dead and most the times your ahead it's not by very much since you will be up against flush draw.

Anyone disagree and explain why.
Are you factoring in the stats I provided on villain (80/47.5/2.64)? He is extremely loose, very aggressive preflop, and only moderately aggressive post-flop.

With such a large over bet, I think I can put him on either a draw or a huge bluff a good portion of the time.
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Old 04-08-2007, 01:27 PM
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I call this with my eyes close. His numbers would have to be below 15 in VP$IP and PFR% and his aggro under 2.3 for me to lay this down.
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