Do we like the push here? - Page 2

SeanyBullets1 · #11 (**permalink**) 04-04-2007, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meldon

Firstly, I would play this hand almost exactly the same as you (maybe a 4x raise preflop), but I'm not sure it is +EV.

I think we can put villain on a fairly narrow range of hands based on his actions. I put the following range into PokerStove :

QQ-JJ,88,AQs,KQs,QJs,T9s,AQo,KQo,QJo,T9o

I think to call an UTG raise and then min-raise that flop he must have one of the above hands. I appreciate there maybe a couple of others (KJ, TT, 99), but I think they're less likely.

This makes us ~45-55 underdog on that board. The way the post-flop action went down we would need some fold equity with the push to make it profitable and I really don't think we have that much. He's getting about 3-1 to call your push and with the range I mentioned above he's likely calling. If we factor in the possibility of him bluffing and him having the ability to fold KQ, AQ then it may be better, but it's close. We have no read on villain afterall.

I disagree with Seany and believe the play would have been better if villain had a deeper stack - we would have had more fold equity from marginal hands that we're behind to such KQ, AQ etc.

Solid analysis.

the alex · #12 (**permalink**) 04-04-2007, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bboy

yes go for it. i'd hate not seeing all 5 cards here anyways.

+1

Eclipse86 · #13 (**permalink**) 04-04-2007, 05:32 PM

with MP1's stack size, a push there is the optimal play imo.
however, if he were deeper, like maybe 70-100$+ it would be a lot better to call and see a turn because most of the time he would have a pretty strong hand to be min raising in a 4 way raised pot. In which case, you would pretty much have no fold equity, and would expect to see 2pair+ like almost everytime. But again, because hes so shortstacked, a push is the best play.