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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > Ring Hand Analysis > AQ raised on the flop

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2006, 10:51 AM
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Default AQ raised on the flop

No reads as yet, not long on table. Are we putting him on a set/overpair or do i have reason to think i'm ahead?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($25)
MP3 ($19.90)
CO ($11.55)
Button ($36.40)
Hero ($26.50)
BB ($24.75)
UTG ($20.70)
UTG+1 ($25.65)
MP1 ($25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, Q.
4 folds, MP3 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.25) Q, 5, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, MP3 raises to $5, Hero ???
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Old 12-29-2006, 12:06 PM
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I push him all in. He's got QJ/KQ/AQ.
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Old 12-29-2006, 12:09 PM
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If you're gonna play that scared you might as well quit poker (you can't have the nuts every hand)

Raise him for all he's got. (even his house)
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Old 12-29-2006, 12:11 PM
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The reason why the weak lead works with monsters is that a 3-bet gets more money in the pot than a bet that gets flat called/folded to or a check/raise. Your bet doesn't scream action and the board isn't draw heavy. Can he have 55 or 88? Yeah. AA or KK? Pretty damn unlikely as he limp/called PF. QQ with the 2 case Queens? Again, unlikely. I think his range to raise here is pretty wide and extends to any pair of any sort as strong as Jacks, maybe QT/QJ, and he could have complete air. I think you're ahead here, but the reverse implied odds of calling from behind as opposed to when you have the best hand come into play.

I'd call and evaluate the turn, I guess, but it's tough. That's why the weak lead is bad here. You wanna make a bet that worse hands call, but not one asking to get raise you off what's usually the best hand. I don't completely disagree with pushing, but if you're gonna weak lead, this takes away the positional disadvantage and will get calls from worse because a lot of the donks aren't folding KQ-Q9, maybe JJ. But from the hands you beat, you get more handing him the noose because these hands are never gonna stop betting as big dogs, but they can fold to a push on the flop. I'd rather 3-bet to ~$12 and push the turn than push the flop.
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Last edited by the alex; 12-29-2006 at 12:16 PM.
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Old 12-29-2006, 07:42 PM
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I was thinking about pushing but considering the tilt I had been on recently I thought it wasn't the best idea. I called and the turn was 3h, I checked and he bet $5. What now?
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Old 12-30-2006, 06:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidab157 View Post
I was thinking about pushing but considering the tilt I had been on recently I thought it wasn't the best idea. I called and the turn was 3h, I checked and he bet $5. What now?
You continued showing weakness in the hand. A strong bet on the turn allows you to see where he's at in the hand. You just called his re raise which was part bully and part information gathering. If you now bet strong on the turn he's going to know you have something. It will then give you some info on his hand.

Alex is right about the fact you have shown weakness all this hand. If he is a savvy player he will know that. The $5 imo is either a weak bet or a suck bet as its less than half the pot. I'm going to go for the former. He thinks you are weak and can take it down with a weak bet. I'd re pop him here up to $15-20 and see where your at. I personally would have re popped him on the flop the way you played it just to see where I am.
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Last edited by shalesey_boy; 12-30-2006 at 06:46 AM.
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Old 12-30-2006, 07:04 AM
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Thanks for the advice guys, hands like that are definitely the weak point in my game at the moment, i need to define the hand at some point and i just gave up really :mad: . I ended up folding that one, just didn't smell right to me, told him i had AQ he said "good fold" (not sure if i believe him though!).
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Old 01-02-2007, 02:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidab157 View Post
(not sure if i believe him though!).
Don't believe him, he's a poker player!
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