No reads on the villain but it became pretty obvious that he had an overpair on the flop.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed)

Hero ($137.95)
BB ($38.75)
UTG ($117.05)
MP1 ($102.40)
MP2 ($310.05)
CO ($189.50)
Button ($98.30)

Preflop: Hero is SB with , .
UTG calls $1, MP1 raises to $4, 3 folds, Hero raises to $12, 1 fold, UTG folds, MP1 calls $8.

Flop: ($26) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $15, MP1 raises to $40, Hero raises to $125.95, MP1 calls $50.40 (All-In).

Turn: ($242.35) (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($242.35) (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $242.35

Results in white below:
Hero has Ah Kh (one pair, kings).
MP1 has Ks Kd (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: MP1 wins $206.80. Hero wins $35.55.

Im very over aggresive on flush draw but I play exactly the same.

Also play sets the same way and you will get paid of more cos they will think last time that donk overbet all in on the flop he had a flush draw. My top pair 7 kicker must be ahead.

You played it perfect.

I might've raised it bigger ($15-$16'ish) because people in lo-stakes games have issues folding to PF re-raises and you're OOP. Calling isn't bad because you don't mind playing this multiway for implied-odds on flop CR's, but I prefer a large re-raise. It's petty.

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I'm m'allin everytime here. You probably have very little fold equity, given the action he most likely has a overpair which he isn't folding, but you're a favourite over most hands.

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Could god microwave a burrito so hot, that he himself could not eat it?

For your play to be profitable you need to be DEAD sure that he will fold at least 30% of the time.

That is because 30%(fluh draw) * (70% - When he doesnt fold) + 30% (that he folds) > 50%.

That way you win over 50% of the time. You can add more factors if you think your Ace or King outs are still good. (if they hit you win)

However in this situation I don't think he would fold 30% of the time.

But again, depends on how tight he is and what information you have about him.

Cheers,
Nima

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PokerEagles owner. | Poker Blog | Official Poker Rules

That also assumes that Villian always has us beat when we're called. It's a draw heavy board and Villian's on a small range because of the PF action, but that same PF action could force him to fold as high as JJ.

A PF range of AA-77, AK-AT+A9s, KQ to this flop and consider that McJ's lead and Villian's position and all of these hands can make this raise to $40. 40% of these hands we already have beat. Let's say that Villian is 50/50 to be capable of this move. That's 20% right there. 77-88 is 10% of the range which we're assuming he folding. Add in that TT/JJ/A9 could fold and we're over the 30% mark.

If the guy's a total donk, his bluffing/folding range is larger with those hands as are the hands he saw the flop with and we can get pushed on and have the best hand.

Against a rock with a range of AA-TT that would call PF AND make this raise, if he has that PF range, he's definitely laying down JJ and maybe QQ here and would've laid down AQ PF and if he played AK, he'd fold to the $15.

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If you are playing against decent players you also need to include equity gained by table image.

Many times after I have pushed all in on a flush draw and later on at same table flop a set on a board with 2 to the flush, people will actually type "I bet you have a flush draw again" before calling my all in with top pair.

Especially as you beginto play better players and aginst dsame opponents this is very important.