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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > Ring Hand Analysis > Fold, call or raise the turn?

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 11-12-2006, 11:51 AM
Mr.McJ's Avatar
Stu Ungar
 
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Default Fold, call or raise the turn?

I didn't know if this was a blocking or a value bet so I raised to find out.



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed)

UTG+1 ($98.50)
MP1 ($17.20)
Hero ($92.35)
CO ($59.55)
Button ($112.60)
SB ($103.35)
BB ($47.75)
UTG ($102.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with , .
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2.

Flop: ($9) , , (3 players)
SB bets $2, BB calls $2, Hero raises to $10, SB calls $8, BB folds.

Turn: ($31) (2 players)
SB bets $11, Hero raises to $30, SB raises to $60, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $121

Results in white below:
No showdown. SB wins $121.
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 11-12-2006, 12:24 PM
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Stu Ungar
 
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Honestly, I cant see what you can beat!!! Qs or Js... thats all... unless you have a read on him and think he can play AT like that....

Really tough fold, but you must do...

KJ
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 11-12-2006, 12:41 PM
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Stu Ungar
 
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It would have been a world class fold if I could have done it without costing myself $30. I just wasn't convinced on the turn, his bet really through me off.
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Old 11-12-2006, 08:17 PM
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Default

i would just call on the turn and see how he plays the river.

if hes bluffing (which he is alot of the time with his line, weak leading into the pf raiser) u shut him down by raising, and alot of hands (88, 99, JJ, QQ, AT) might fold.

this is a good board for your hand, just call the bet here and see how he plays the river.
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Old 11-12-2006, 10:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tightagressive View Post
i would just call on the turn and see how he plays the river.

if hes bluffing (which he is alot of the time with his line, weak leading into the pf raiser) u shut him down by raising, and alot of hands (88, 99, JJ, QQ, AT) might fold.

this is a good board for your hand, just call the bet here and see how he plays the river.
yup, could not have said it any better.. flat calling the turn, and re-evaluating the river is the best option here imo - mainly for pot control reasons. You should be scared of a set here, so u shouldnt be raising it imo. And since u only raised it to 3$ pf, you should be trying to limit the amount of money u put in postflop (to minimize your losses to a flopped set) because your pf raise was really weak. By raising such a small amount pf, you allowed multiple opponents to call you, thus resulting in a inflated flop potsize relativeto the amount of $$ u put in pf, and by playing this hand fast postflop u will lose alot of money to the flopped set. Raising ^^this turn is -ev cuz its only going to get called or re-raised by a better hand, and by raising u get him to laydown any hand that u can beat.

I would have just flat called the turn, let a card come off and see what happens on the river. Probably would call a river bet depending on the size of the bet, but if its a heart and he continues leading out then I fold. I also would probably fold to a river bet if the river card is a J or a 6. If the river is a non heart, J or 6, and your opponent checks to you, then I would fire out a value bet of maybe 1/3rd the ps.


In any case, raise this hand harder pf dude. I personally would have just jacked this up to 12$ preflop.

anyways, the turn is a easy fold.

"Anytime someone raises you postflop, they have better then 1 pair"
^ Follow this rule for postflop play, and you wont get yourself into any trouble with TPTK or overpairs.

Last edited by Eclipse86; 11-12-2006 at 10:40 PM.
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Old 11-13-2006, 04:25 AM
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Stu Ungar
 
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See I figured that if I was calling $11 on the turn, I was willing to call at least another $20 on the river and if I was willing to call another $20 on the river, I might as well raise him $20 now and found out where I am. That being said, you guys make a great point about how raising here will get weaker hands to fold whereas playing it defensively would have kept the weaker hands in (and maybe earned me an extra $20 on the river.) Plus calling would have let me see another card and maybe I would have hit that 2 outer and stacked my opponent. So ya, in hindsight calling here would have been best.

Quote:
In any case, raise this hand harder pf dude. I personally would have just jacked this up to 12$ preflop.
BAH! You really don't like my PF raising, do you? lol. Allow me to justify....
I'm raising PF on practically every pot I enter. I'm raising from LP with things like TJos, suited 0/1/2 gap connectors, pps, etc. I'm even raising against a couple of limpers with this crap. Almost anytime I raise, I'm making it 3bb. Even if 2 or 3 people have limped in, I'm still probably raising it just 3bb (assuming I have position on my opponents and am confident that I can outplay them postflop.) So when I get big hands like AA/KK, it's going to look awfully suspicious if out of nowhere I raise it to 6-12bb. I'm practically showing my opponents my cards with a bet like that and the only action I'll get throughout the hand will be action from a hand that beats me.

I realise the downsides to my strategy, playing my big hands so weakly will give my opponents some pretty good implied odds, can get me involved in multiway pots where I'm not entirely sure about the strength of my hand and generally speaking makes all post flop decisions much harder. So why do it? Because I'm trading a small mistake on my part (playing my big hands weakly PF) to induce bigger and more frequent mistakes from my opponents. Now I can raise 3bb with any 2 cards and my opponents won't know if I have AA or TJos. They won't know if I'm c-betting or if I really have it. I'm inducing my opponents to play back at me PF with weaker hands.

So I do lose money occassionally when something like this happens but my strategy is paying off on those times when I do hit a big hand and get paid for it or those times when I'm stealing every pot that aren't being contested. Sklansky talks about this concept his latest book, the idea of trading a small mistake on your part for bigger and more frequent mistakes on your opponents part, that's kind of where I got it from.
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 11-13-2006, 05:08 AM
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Quote:
In any case, raise this hand harder pf dude. I personally would have just jacked this up to 12$ preflop.
$12?!!! Open-raise in the CO-1 for $12?! Why open up the table to sit down?

I don't like raising the turn because you commit your stack and kinda' force yourself into a lot of "bad folds." You don't want a heart to get a cheap river, but raise and you lose control over the size of the pot. Your river decision'll be a lot easier by calling. Just about everything that you action from is gonna fold to your raise here, but hands you beat like random tens, JJ, 99, and 88 are gonna toss about another blocking bet on the river if you just call. 4 out of 5 times, the heart misses and the FD's gonna stab at the pot along with those hands.

You'll get a cheap, profitable showdown with a call. This is a nice pot. Raising saves him from making more mistakes than it saves you and you seemed consumed with preventing yourself from making a mistake
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Originally Posted by FaDi View Post
GodFadiR (12:32:45 AM): but lets be honest
GodFadiR (12:32:48 AM): who doesnt wanna fuck me
WotaWotaWota (12:33:22 AM): I do
WotaWotaWota (12:33:27 AM): in tehanus

Last edited by the alex; 11-13-2006 at 05:12 AM.
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 11-13-2006, 05:33 AM
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One thing I'm working on is making the switch from an offensive strategy (attacking with raises) to a defensive strategy (check/calling.) I'm trying to identify hands and situations where it would be advantageous for me to make such a switch, I'm getting better but obviously I'm not perfect at it. So thanks for the advice.
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Old 11-13-2006, 05:37 AM
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I get the feeling that you made this raise really fast to look strong so you didn't show that you were a bit confused. I gave up blocking timing tells. There's more value is playing these big pots with more thought.
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Originally Posted by FaDi View Post
GodFadiR (12:32:45 AM): but lets be honest
GodFadiR (12:32:48 AM): who doesnt wanna fuck me
WotaWotaWota (12:33:22 AM): I do
WotaWotaWota (12:33:27 AM): in tehanus
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  #10 (permalink)  
Old 11-13-2006, 05:47 AM
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Stu Ungar
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the alex View Post
I get the feeling that you made this raise really fast to look strong so you didn't show that you were a bit confused. I gave up blocking timing tells. There's more value is playing these big pots with more thought.
You are incorrect, sir. I took a minute and thought it out and I eventually came to the conclusions that I mentioned a couple posts above. I figured calling here meant I would probably have to call another $20 on the river and if I was willing to call $20 on the river then I might as well raise $20 on the turn.
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