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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > Ring Hand Analysis > AQs on the button...

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Old 10-15-2006, 10:26 PM
KINGJACK's Avatar
Stu Ungar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Montréal
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Default AQs on the button...

1/2NL live

Game conditions loose agressive.

CO: he is a maniac PF... but he seems to play post flop pretty well... well indeed he seems to hit a lot!!!

Limpers: 2 of them are really weak... one of them is loose as hell... he can definately call a raise and a reraise with anything! And he could have limps with almost anything aswell!!!

However, this info comes from previous games I played with all of them, I'm a the table for less than 2 orbits.

Chips stacks... all between 180$ and 220$

3 limpers
CO raise to 10$
I reraise to 30$
3 limpers folds!!! Great!!!
Co thiks and finaly calls!

Flop Ax Kc 3x rainbow

he checks
I bet 60$
He moves all in!!
OMG!!!!!!!!! He cant hit every flops like that!!! However the last time I saw him make that kind of move he had with this kind of action PF, he had both top and bottom pairs he was against AK and no help for the slick on the last 2 streets!

I looked at him and say... not top and bottom again?
And he said: ''thats poker'' and he moved both hands to the pot!!!

Dealer said: Hey... its my job to give you the pot... and his hand is still alive!!!

He just said; ''Sorry!!''

And he shut the fuck up for the whole time I was trying to make up my mind!

2 questions:
Do you call?

And do you think I'm trying to over evaluate my opponents reactions because I'm fairly new to live cash game play, or is it ok and I should continue to do that if I want my early succes to continue?

KJ
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 10-16-2006, 01:43 AM
Porg's Avatar
Check Raiser
 
Join Date: May 2006
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Default

Maybe I'm blind. What do you have?
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 10-16-2006, 03:32 AM
Eclipse86's Avatar
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 1,615
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Default

"Do you call?"

No, I can do better then getting all my money in with AQ on a board of AK3.
Also the way he played the hand represents AK the whole way through.
And if hes doing this with bottom pair or anything less then AK, you will have no trouble in stacking him next time.

I also dont like the RR pf. I'd prefer folding over anything else.
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 10-16-2006, 04:09 AM
the alex's Avatar
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Default

That's pretty sick. $69 in the pot, there's nothing you beat calling you after he checks, but you don't want to give him a free card either. What was the normal flop bet in relation to the pot at the table. Couldn't have been more than 2/3 the pot especially to boards like this.

With this board:
1.) Kings can go out the window because he had you right where he wanted you preflop with Kings- same for Aces and you have an Ace. But that's not reason enough because he was out of position and you committed a lot of chips to isolate him. This is screams AK, AQ, or pair. A tricky player'll see this immediately out of position and let you commit your stack on the flop. If you bet $60 to a Q-8-3 board, he'd just call with Kings or put in the minimum raise. The Ace is his action card. If you're not giving him all your chips here, he's not getting them. He knows this.

2.) Lesser ace? Doubt it. He'd probe it, not check it. AJ could be possible, but that's it. The all-in's an "I'm not getting away from this hand. I might as well give myself a shot at getting him to lay down a couple of better hands."

3.) Your bet would tell me that you didn't want action if I had AK because I have an Ace and I doubt how lucky I am sometimes. If I had AK in his spot, I'd check with the plan to raise, but just call $60 and let you bet the rest of it. But this is similar to point #1. He could just be concluding that he gets your chips here or never.

4.) A3 sounds consistent with the other hand, but is a good preflop player going into the flop on the call out of position with A3? No matter how aggressive he is preflop, if you have respect for his postflop play, you have to recognize that he's playing big pots out of position with hands that flop well.

5.) Same hand makes the most sense, but it'd be the weirdest scenario.

6.) 33's a long shot. He'd love to take a multiway flop with 3's. Doesn't fit the PF raise.

7.) QQ is a similar case to the AJ case. Your preflop action was consistent of hands that were black and white for him and your flop bet isn't an action bet. Conversely with the KK possibly, the Ace is an action killer. With a set, he's getting the action here or he isn't. With QQ, he's got the best hand, gets you to lay down AJ-A9 and he takes the pot or you call with AQ+, KK, or AA. Like the AJ case, this is a way for him to win with the worst hand if you have AJ, AT, or A9 because of your PF re-raise that screamed isolation.

8.) JJ is the worst hand I can think of because it cuts down your range to justify his push. He's gotta have you on Jacks or better right now.

It's an easy fold looking at it that way, but I've been in situations with AJ and QQ where I've pulled this move after check/raising a monster and stacking someone. I'm just translating my thought process. With these hands, he can get you to lay down the best hand. There's ~$130 in dead money in the pot to pick up if you were pulling an isolation/CB with AQ-A9, JJ, or TT. You both cut down each others ranges heavily to the point that I don't think you can lay down getting 2:1.

AK- 4
KK- 3
7 hands beat you

AJ- 8
QQ- 6
14 hands you beat.

That's a +EV call of about $260

If you wanna throw A3 into the equation, you've gotta throw all of the other Aces that you beat in there, too making it an even better call, but I'm really not buyin' that. I'm also gonna throw KK out because he got quiet and seemed excited to take down the pot. He wouldn't be that excited with KK because he would've wanted a call. He would've mucked in some small form of disgust before reaching for the pot or flaunted the Kings.

Silence is different with all people. AK sounds right for this, but your declaration and the fact that you're still considering calling after he was so happy to take the pot without a call will always induce silence from the hands you beat. It would also induce it if he has the same hand.

I'm calling this because of the math. You inflated the pot with your PF re-raise and your big flop bet. I'm re-raising to $20 PF or folding. This is a good flop for your hand or it's horrible. No need to bet more than 2/3 the pot. Send him a message where you can better interpret the reaction instead hastily playing your 2 cards in fear of being beat.
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Last edited by the alex; 10-16-2006 at 04:20 AM.
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