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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > Ring Hand Analysis > How can I extract more value here? Raise the flop? Check the turn?

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Old 09-30-2006, 06:30 AM
Mr.McJ's Avatar
Stu Ungar
 
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Location: Toronto, Ontario
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Default How can I extract more value here? Raise the flop? Check the turn?

No read on the villain at all. I figure his big overbet on the flop means either top pair/weak kicker, 55 to 99 (although the turn obviously rules out 99) or a complete bluff. I was torn between betting the turn and checking it but I decided to put in a small bet and make it look like a steal.



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed)

UTG+1 ($27.90)
MP1 ($23.85)
Hero ($39.85)
MP3 ($22.65)
CO ($39.90)
Button ($30.35)
SB ($24.75)
BB ($12.90)
UTG ($23.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with , .
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.60) , , (6 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets $2.5, Hero calls $2.50, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($6.60) (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $3, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: $9.60

Results in white below:
No showdown. Hero wins $9.60.
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Old 09-30-2006, 07:55 AM
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Default

he probably has 55-88 no way hes calling anything more then 2 bux on the turn
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Old 09-30-2006, 08:53 AM
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Default

A check on the turn wouldn't be a bad play. There are no draws that scare you. The only thing you are scared of is the set already or a set on the river.

He may be checking the turn as a trap and will either check/call or check/raise your bet. But you have to assume you probably have him beat after the flop bet.

If your not scared of many river cards then it's probably best to start building a pot. He's slowed down so you have to entice him in. I can't remember the pot exactley but if I remeber correctley its around $6.

I think you have 3 options here.

1/ Check the turn and hope he bets the river figuring you have a weak hand and want to check it down. Then you can pop him on the river with a nice value raise.

2/ Put out a probe bet around 1/3 ($2) of the pot which will hopefully entice him in.

3/ Put in a mini bet which looks like a weak stab at the pot ($1) and hope he pops you with a re raise. You can then take your time and call. If he calls the bet re evaluate on the river.

I think the majority of the time you have the best hand here and not many river cards scare you. I'd usually go for option 2 or 3 and probably use 2 the majority of the time. If you mix this in with some general stabs at the pot around this ammount it just looks like business as usual and you get a customer.
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Old 09-30-2006, 09:12 AM
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Yeah. No way this idiot has a King with that donk-bet on the flop. He most likely has a pair between 4 and K, so he'll bet the river. No draws to be afraid of and as much as I hate slowplaying, against a guy who doesn't know how to bet, it's not a bad idea. He's bass-ackwards in that he represents hands with big bets and probably pussy bets the best hand.

1/3 the pot isn't a bad idea. He's just a really weak player and if you bet $2-$2.5 on the turn, he seems like one of those idiots that would fold to a min. bet on the river 'cause he clicks the "Auto-Fold."
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Last edited by the alex; 09-30-2006 at 09:17 AM.
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Old 09-30-2006, 08:49 PM
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Im raising that flop every single time. His overbet usually means he has a very weak holding or a very strong holding. Basically he could have either a low kicker K, a PP lower then a K, or middle pair... either that or he has 2 pair or lower set here. If he has a weak holding, your not gonna make any more money off him anyways, unless he hits a higher set or improves to 2 pair. If he has 2pair or lower set, you want him in now.

Also, there is a possible straight draw, someone could be holding 35. In which case I wouldn't want someone holding that coming along for the ride. Cuz if a A or 6 hits on the turn, it will make my hand ALOT harder to play.
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Old 10-01-2006, 05:26 AM
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im putting him on king with fairly low kicker.
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