Please see:


http://www.pokerhand.org/?505820

On the flop I had something like 18 outs to top pair, my big mistake was that I should have bet my draw. As a result the guy made a pot sized bet, I called because of the odds, and implied odds, then folded to a second pot sized bet on the turn. To twist the knife, the guy showed he was bluffing, and I had the best hand by far. Had I bet my draw, he would have never bluffed, and I would have easly won the pot.

What are your thoughts?

Check raise the flop. I'd probably make it $15.

You can call on the flop, you just have to call on the turn as well.

You can also raise allin on the flop.

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ICM / EV Calculator and other free poker software

With 3 people to act behind me and a ~$4.75 pot, I'm insta check-raising this coordinated flop all-in.

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AI alex? He's got $40+ behind, can you explain why you would push? (I get the 3 people behind, but that's a 10x raise). I'd bet out here, why the CR?

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BOSS

12 outs to the absolute nuts if your opponent has a set- discounting your opponents' odds to the FH/quads, you're a 2:1 dog. But he limped PF and I think that we can throw QQ out the window so only 6 combinations have us as 2:1 dogs.

15 outs against AQ, KQ and KK+ as an 11:9 fav. Add in the times you pick up the pot with Ace high when your opponent is forced to fold QJ and JJ. If not, v. QJ=17 outs and v. JJ=16 outs. You could have the best hand against KJ, J9 and AJ. And you have 16 outs against 2d3d as an 11:9 fav.

There's enough dead money in the pot to make this a +EV push.

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But we're only pushing here because we expect at least one call right? Not to take it down here (which wouldn't be bad)?

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BOSS

Some better math people can figure out what we really, but taking down a 20x pot with Ace hi ain't bad. In my head, worst case scenario, I get called as a small dog, but most times I'm called as a slight favorite with $5 of dead money in the pot. If you only call, you're 2:1 at best because you're only gonna see 1 more card.

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I understand, I keep forgetting to look at pot size in relation to the number of blinds you're winning and moreso compare it to the stacks.

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BOSS

I missed the extra straight outs. That could mean as many as 18 outs against a maniac who believes his middle pair or Q-low is good.

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