Lee Watkinson ends day1 of the WSOP with the CL and 160,000.

Of course the fact that the Day 1 chip leader has never won the WSOP is used as an example of how early agression and risk doesn't pay-off.

I say two things:

1. Small sample size.

2. Those with the biggest stacks on day1 make it farther into the money than the rest of the field (I posted a comparison last year about this).

How the heck did he get 16x the starting stack by the end of day 1? Was he lucky? A bully?

Beavis, couldn't a person make similar points about players with average chip stacks at the end of day 1? You surely could identify some that made it far into the money.

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"Ok, this is for the game. How you doin' over there? NOT TOO GOOD!"" -Bubble Boy

Take the top 10% and the middle 10% and see how they finished.

Are you arguing that having a larger chip stack doesnt help?

If you look at the top 50 players. The middle 50 players and the bottom 50 players.

I would wager that on average - the top 50 on day one have more players make it into the money, and make more money than the middle 50 and the middle 50 have more than the bottom 50.

As to how he did it, I posted one hand example.

It's a matter of sheer numbers, and odds.

Ok, so a day 1 chip leader has never won it. Does that mean they don't have the BEST CHANCE of winning at the start of day two? I think it does, but with the number of players involved that chance is still a fairly small percetage. I think this is one of those stats that is interesting, but just doesn't mean much.

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I'm CDO. It's like OCD, but everying is in order just like it should be.

No way! I would never argue that! Lol.

That's probably a safe bet Beavis. I'd going to have to look at the stats when the whole show is over.

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"Ok, this is for the game. How you doin' over there? NOT TOO GOOD!"" -Bubble Boy

It'd be nice to see him win...I'm was really hoping for Seidel to do well, and was surprised at all the names out so far.

Go man Go!

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no he wont win it. have you ever watched the guy play heads up? just terrible. he's a good solid player otherwise, and i like him, but he just cant play heads up...

i, too, was hoping seidel would do well, but ivey and matusow are still alive (well, cuz they havent played yet )

Harrington for the trifecta.....

The point of the thing is, usually the Cl after day 1 has usually been a loosey-goosey type player who frequently put his chip stack at risk but got paid off. Watkinson had to do the same, but he probably had a good ru of cards to do it. IF he plays smart poker (which past CL's hadnt, hence their downfall), hes got a good shot of making thr money. he blinds will be too big for him to gurantee a final table though. His stack is probbly 2-3 final table bets right now, and the blinds are too small right now for him to continue this fast pace climb, hes goign to have to slow down and wait a bit for other stacks to build before he can build his again.

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youre forgetting he isnt the day 1 chip leader yet... there are still 2 more day 1's to go

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IIAv8tionII - ME
Av8tion - SCAMMER

Online Tournament Wins: 11

I didnt forget nothing, i didnt know they were splitting it up again this year, i thought the point of having it at the Rio was to have everybody playing at the same time.

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