Ok before you can read this thread 2345+48385=what?

If you cant work that out, don't read any further you are too retarded to understand what I'm about to say.

This is a two parter.

Part A:

Situation: You are in the bigblind and pick up aces, its folded around to the smallblind who moves allin.


Now in a STT folding is clearly so horribly wrong anyone contemplating it should be shot.

However in say your typical 1000 player online tournament its pretty wrong to play aces. Double your starting stack doesn't increase your chances of winning the tournament by more than a percent or two and you have a 20% chance of busting.

Assuming you have a generous edge over most of the field its wrong to call.

At what size of MTT does it become correct to start folding aces to blind allins?



Part B:

First hand of an MTT, same as above except the button and smallblind are both allin already and you have aces.

In this situation your increased chances of winning the tournament are maybe 1-5%?

Yet your odds of losing are 40%. ( Less if its something like AK and QQ allin already but still, its pretty significant ).

Again clearly its wrong to call.
Is there a field size we can find that makes it correct to call?

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A good education is expensive but ignorance costs more.

Butter my arse and call me retarded, but I'd call both of those in heartbeat.


Folding aces occassionally becomes viable due to the bubble in satellites and specific payout situations towards the end of MTTs, but folding to a SB allin, nope.

Who has got enough of an edge on the field to turn down an 80% chance of doubling up?

I assume you are talking about in the first round of a tournament?

They asked the following question to a few top pro's including Ivey and Matusow.

"If you are sitting on the first hand in the WSOP and there are 3-4 all ins ahead of you and you are holding AA would you call?"

Every single one of them said yes, because the potential edge of having that big chip stack early on was too good to turn down.

Thats a completely different scenario and I've heard several pros saying they would fold to an allin in front of them in similar scenarios to mine.

In your case they would have 4-5x the starting stack and really be able to bully effectively, in mine they cannot.

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A good education is expensive but ignorance costs more.

SB allin, I've got Aces and I fold? Why? Under what circumstances?

IMO where you go wrong is in assuming that your winning chances only increase by 1-5%.

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ICM / EV Calculator and other free poker software

is this your own information or did you actually hear this from somone?


if you are in the bb with AA and the sb moves in, right, if you double up it wont increase your chances to win the tournament by nearly the 20% you have to lose the hand. HOWEVER (and i wont do a very good job explaining this because im bad with numbers and such but i know im right) folding aces there is horrible. you have to understand, that if you just look at the numbers of the play (20% rate of failure to increase your chance of winning by 1%) they arent very good, but poker is about making better plays than your opponents. as long as your opponents are making, on average, worse calls and plays than this, you win. because on average, you will make it farthur than your opponents.

somebody make that make sense please^ haha


anyways, folding there is a stupid play, and i will laugh at anyone who does so

Call. Call. Call. Did I say call yet? Call.

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BOSS

Think of this way....
In a 1000 person MTT where everyone starts with 1500 you are going to have to double up about 13-14 times in order to win the tournament. Can you think of a better chance to double up than this one? 'cause I sure can't.

Definitely call. Sklanksy's tournament play book talks a bit about folding aces either when you're around the bubble or at certain points in the final table (with big prize jumps at each place) but not at the times you're talking about. You say it only gives you a 1% increase in chances of winning but in reality you can get yourself into a perfect spot for bullying and hence building a stack for the later stages.