Hey all,

Well, before I type what happened, let me first say that earlier in the session I had Jc10c, called... flopped 2 pair. played it passive and won like 1.50 at the river. so that might've influenced my play here a little...

Basically I was on button. Guy in EMP rased 12 cents (punks before him folded). MP calls beside me calls. I call. SB calls and BB folds.

First, is this a bad call in general? I really waned to do it, but I was unsure. Fortunately I called because...

Flop QKA(all diff suits) !!! I say to myself "oh boy, if this guy has AA or KK or AK he'll #### himself when he sees what I have...

EMP bets 30 cents MP folds.. I raise all in. guy beside me folds. And EMP calls.

I and of course I won. But yeah, I did hear after winning this pot that J10s is the strongest suited connector you can have. So I guess that's cool .

Cheers,

Mike

PS. I hope you don't mind the way I typed this post... EMP was meant to be early mid position... MP mid position. I dunno how to do that MP1 MP2 stuff, yet .

I probably would have folded, but shit, it's 12 cents, who cares I guess. Suited connectors are overrated and you got lucky, but that's how it goes. Nice hand.

Hey,

While I don't think the 12 cent call was so terrible (but probably loses big in the long run), I think my all in was pretty crazy.

Was the all-in raise a bad cal (err raise)l? Assuming he had pocket As (which he did) or Ks or Qs... It'd leave him with quite a few outs... So was the all-in move bad?

Can someone tell me the odds someone would hit any of the 7 outs he had?

It's possible that the other 2 callers had some big cards (KQs, AK (doubt)... even Kxs), so that might influence the # of outs. Would it be wrong to assume they did (maybe they had 2 low pair)...?

Cheers,

Mike

The odds are a little weird to calculate. He had more than 7 outs after the turn, assuming he didn't get one of his outs on the turn. If, for instance, a 7 came on the turn, he then had an extra 3 outs for the river, since he would have gotten the boat. Anyway, you had 2 cards in your hand, and he had 2, which we now assume we know, and 3 cards are out. This means his 7 outs for the turn are out of 45 possible cards. 7/45 = 15.555% that he'd beat you on the turn. Assuming he didn't get his winner, it now depends on what falls. Also, keep in mind I'm ignoring flush possibilites (that is too annoying). If the card that drops is a 10 or a jack, he only has an extra 2 outs, if it's anything else he has 3. I'll assume 3 to make things easier, and make this a worst case estimate. Now he has 10 possible out of 44 cards. 10/44 = 22.72%. So a 15.55% chance of winning on the turn and a 22.72% chance of winning on the river, means he had a 38.27% chance of beating you. You had the best odds of winning, but it may have been nice for you to see the turn before you all inned, since I would assume he'd still be happy to all in without the boat.

Thank you!!! I hadn't considered those 3 extra outs that'd be available at the river.

Don't forget that if the turn was a J, he'd have those 2 extra outs, and 3 10s available for the river that'd split the pot. Complicated stuff. Sadly I had barely even considered it and just said to myself, "I'm better. All in I go!" lol.

Is there a site on the net that gives you situations to work on this stuff? turn odds and river odds? maybe gives 100 situations? that'd be awesome if there were.

Cheers,

Mike

yeah, you can use this...

http://www.twodimes.net/poker/

I just tried the situation there and I was pretty close in my approximation, they said he had about a 35% chance of winning, and since I said mine was more of a high end approximation, it was a pretty good estimate.

well, I meant a sight that gives you some regular situations, and you gotta figure out the best course of action based on what's happened... So the site asks you in situation X "How many outs does he have? and hwat're his odds of winning?" That kind of stuff.

Anyway, that's a pretty cool site, and I suppose you could set up your own situations and test yourself with it to see if you're correct.

What's your name on PS? I have searched umich_guy umich guy and umichguy on several occasions and come up empty .

Cheers,

Mike

wow thats a cool site

i didn't know there was an omaha8b calc lurking around

my name is "umich guy" on there.

I actually watch the high rollers more than I actually play, but I played a few hours today and was up $50.

I usually quit at about there and do other stuff...like shower and eat, heh.

This is a little strange way to calculate the odds, there is no way to have more % of winning in turn than the river except if the % you made is "if one of your outs falls on the turn".
Blame my english for that sentence but anyway. An easier way to calculate your % on the spot, not 100% accurate but close is finding your outs and multiplying them X4 if 2 cards remain to fall and X2 if you are on the river, adding 2.
So if he has AA (or KK, QQ) he has 1xA, 3xK, 3XQ = 7 outs on the turn = 30% and 22% on the river.
If he has AK (or KQ) he has only 4 outs = 18% on the turn 10% on the river.
I notice that we have the same results but its much easier with this way to calculate if you have pot odds to draw some cards.