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Thread: Card odds

  1. #1
    Fish Food
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    2

    Default Card odds

    I was looking at the Implied Odds page on another forum and theres an odd I don't know how the writer came to it.

    ''A good example of when implied odds in poker come into play is when you limp in with a small or medium pair before the flop in hold 'em. Your chance of hitting a set (which is typically the only way a small or medium pair will win) is around 7.5-1, which means that pot needs to have 6 or 7 other limpers to make it worthwhile.''

    I know its a card odd, but how do you get to 7.5-1?

  2. #2
    Fish Food
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    4

    Default

    Hi, to get the chances you have to do some math: there are 48 cards on 50 that do not give you a set as the first card, 47 on 49 on the second one and 46 on 48 on the third. So the chance to *not* get a set is 48/50 * 47/49 * 46/48 = 88.25%, chances to get a set are 100% - 88.25% = 11.75%, about 7.5 times smaller than 88.25%, from here 7.5-1.

    Computing odds on the fly for the flop is hard - you usually have to know them, but there are not many cases to remember. For example, getting any pair with two different cards has odds around 2-1.

    About the 'worthwhile' part I don't agree completely, if there are aggressive players probably you can win a lot with a set, so also with less limpers it could be worth calling.

    So long

  3. #3
    Chaser
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    NY
    Posts
    194

    Default

    Why would someone need 6 or 7 other callers to make it worthwhile? To get enough money in the pot already when you hit that set?

  4. #4
    Check Raiser George's Avatar
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