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  1. #1
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
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    Default Calculating outs and odds in your head.

    Called the 2+2 method (And hence the name of Sklansky's publishing company).

    I'm going to assume you can count your outs, and you understand pot odds. If you are unsure of these concepts, then check the FAQ at the top of this forum, it has links to articles on these topics.

    The 2+2 method is very simple. You take the number of outs you have, multiply by 2, and add 2. That gives you the percentage chance of you hitting one of your outs.

    Ex.

    You have a flush draw, which is 9 outs. Multiply by 2, (18), then add 2 (20). That gives you a 20% chance, or 1 in 5 (4-1 odds). So you'll need pot odds of 4 to 1 to make a call.

    This is only good for one street! If you count your outs on the flop, then the pot odds you are getting reflect only upon the turn, Not the turn and River. Just because you had odds on the Turn does not mean you will have odds on the river.

    If you wanted to take the odds for BOTH streets, ie your facing an all in call on the flop, then you use 4+4. Multiply by 4, then add 4. You can try to use this for normal situations too, but you must then be accurately incorporating implied odds on the next round of betting, and that is too complex to be discussed in this thread. Best to only use this method (4+4) only if there will be no betting on the turn.

    You can also use an Outs Table I made years ago. Can be Found here. I have had one of these tacked to my wall for the last 6 or 7 years.

    Comparing the 2+2 (and 4+4) Methods to the actual results, you'll notice that there is some very slight differences in the percentages. There is a slight fudge factor built in to make it easier to do in your head. By all means though, If you can do math like 9/46 in your head, be my guest.
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

    Luck is a Residue of Design.

  2. #2
    Fish maybenext1me's Avatar
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    Default

    Thanks for sharing this!
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  3. #3
    Fish Food
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    Default

    Didn't know that's where the name 2+2 came from, and I've been around a while. Feel kinda silly now that you mention it.

  4. #4
    Fish Food Khaile's Avatar
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    I've found that, for the most part, you don't even have to calculate any pot odds. The reason is because bets will often make the pot odds poor for anything but a decent hand. The exception is when you're trying to give your opponent good pot odds against you, because you wanna milk him for everything he got.

    E.g. if you see a straight draw against your pocket ace set, just bet half the pot to force him to fold. If he's still in the game, he might already got a straight or maybe 2 pairs or a lower set. Try betting or raising big against him and if he then goes all-in, just fold. Chances are that he won't however. He'll probably fold himself. That's the power of aggression.

    I'd say that pot odds and outs is crucial knowledge. But in application, it usually only requires attention in those "hard decision" moments (after the turn or river). Leading out with bets (as per Gus Hansen's style) against passive players can be the correct action even if the bet is against the pot odds (a bluff or a semi-bluff).

    Also, once you got certain hands (top set or better) by the flop, you often get a >50% chance to win by the river, meaning that ANY bet will be in your favor.
    Last edited by Khaile; 05-31-2011 at 07:52 PM.

  5. #5
    Fish Food
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    Default

    What does an "out" mean?

  6. #6
    Chaser
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Ariadne View Post
    What does an "out" mean?

    An "Out" is the number of cards available to make your hand. For example. You see two hearts in the flop and you have two hearts in your hole cards (the two cards that were dealt to you face down earlier in the hand) together there are 4 hearts you know of. There are, however 9 more hearts available to make your flush (five cards of the same suit). You have 9 outs to a flush.

    Does that make sense?

  7. #7
    Chaser
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    I was taught to count outs like this:

    Flush draw. 9x2+1=19% (9 outs, times 2 for the turn + 1 as you have more than 8 outs)

    Multiply by 4 for BOTH the turn AND the river as in all-ins.

    -1 for less than 8 outs.

    Call only if your pot odds are more than your card odds.

    Ah, what do you think? Thats how I was taught.

  8. #8
    Fish Food
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    Jun 2011
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    Default

    What do you mean it's only good for one street and what do you mean by two streets? I'm confused....

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