So I just don't use enough of the math. I can count outs fine, and know if someone is betting 2 dollars into a 10 dollar pot I have to call...but When it gets tighter I'm just not great at my figuring out my odds of winning.. I don't even know if this makes sense but my main point is Me + percentages = i'm lost. I want to be able to do this math quicker in my head without any type of calculator. Help and/or shortcuts would be awesome, thanks.

This isn't exact, but generally, on the flop, multiply outs by 4 and that's your equity. On the turn, multiply by 2. Take that %, using the numbers below, to estimate the odds you need to call:

50% = even money
33% = 2 to 1
25% = 3 to 1
20% = 4 to 1
16% = 5 to 1
14% = 6 to 1
12% = 7 to 1
11% = 8 to 1
10% = 9 to 1

Hm, I'm having a bit of trouble following. One or two examples would be appreciated. Thanks.

OK. Take a flush draw for example...

You have
Opponent has
The board is

You have 9 outs... Multiply by 2 to get 18% (Actual odds are 20.455%. Like I said, it's an estimation)

18% is between 4 to 1 and 5 to 1 so you need about 4.5 to 1 pot odds to call.

Take the same hole cards, but the board is now

You now have 14 outs (9 clubs, 2 2s, and 3 3s). 14*2 = 28% (Actual is 31.818%) 28% is close to 3 to 1 odds, so that's what you need to call.

So if the pot is $15.00 after turn comes, what is the max that the AK can bet into the turn (on both boards) and it still be profitable/justified for me to call?

For the first board, if he bets $5, there is now $20 in the pot and it costs you $5 to call, (20/5) so you are getting 4 to 1. That's close enough so $5 or less. (He can bet more and you can call IF you think he'll pay you off if you hit. That's implied odds)

For the second board, $7 is about it. Makes the pot $22, $7 for you to call, giving you about 3 to 1 odds (22/7 = 3.14).

Hey, thanks a lot for the explanation. Another thing I was wondering, which might not have math is this type of situation.

I have: 5d 5c
Villian has: Ad Kc

Flop: Ac Kh 5s

How do I figure out my expectancy to win. (maybe like when you're watching t.v. and it has the percentages next to the whole cards) Or if I'm saying that I don't know what villian has. Stuff like that.

Same way except come at it from his perspective.

He has 4 outs that can beat you, 2 As + 2 Ks, so 4 outs * 4 = ~16% chance to hit, so your Equity is 100% - 16% = ~84% (Actual is 83.23% so pretty close)

When the turn comes do the same thing but use outs * 2, so ~8% or 100-8% = ~92% (Actual is 90.91%)

Of course that only works if you know his hole cards. If you don't know his hole cards then you have to decide on a range of what cards he might have based on what you know about the player from prior betting history etc. I'm still in the process of learning that aspect so no advice from me there.

Once you have his range figured out you can use a program called Pokerstove www.pokerstove.com (it's free) to get the actual numbers for your hand versus villain's presumed range.


Using the rule of 4 and rule of 2 is generally close enough. It won't give you the same numbers as you see on TV, they take into account dead cards from other players hands when generating those numbers, but certainly good enough for the table. Pokerstove will do calcs with dead cards as well.

I would add that the 2 and 4 rules break down the more outs you have, so they are much closer to the true values when you have 2 outs rather than 15. Luckily as you get more outs the accuracy of the prediction probably isn't as important so it compensates for that a bit.

You can also use the rule of 2 on the flop if you just want to know the chances of hitting on the turn rather than both the turn and the river.