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07-03-2007, 09:56 PM
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Fish Food
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 29
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Making Sure I understand Poy Odds completely. (help)
lol, I misspelled pot.
I am bad at math. So thats why I am making this post to make absolutely sure I have Pot odds right.
say I have
the flop is
my chances of of making a flush (the best hand in this situation i believe) are:
34% roughly? outs=8 (x2 b/c of the turn and the river) outsx2+2=34%
say theres 20 cents in the pot already, somone bets 2 cents, and somone else raises them to 4 cents. the very least the pot could be is 26 cents (assuming no other players) and I have to call 4 cents which would be roughly 15% right?
therefore i should call because the ratio of the pot to the bet is a lower percentage than my percent chance that i will hit my flush. Am I correct?
questions: how do i take 4th and 5th street into consideration? I was thinking maybe the original chances of making a flush should be higher, since I have 2 chances to hit 8 outs making my outs actually around 16, therefore making the original chances of my hitting the flush actually be 35%? and therefore justifying a bigger bet.
also: does this look like a good poker odds chart to use?
http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/13913
Last edited by StealYourCash; 07-03-2007 at 10:00 PM.
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07-03-2007, 10:04 PM
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Poker Hustler
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: Reno, NV
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Your chance of making a flush here is actually 36%. It's outs (which are nine) * 2 * cards to come. Since I assume you're folding if you don't make it on the turn, it would be 18% to make it on the turn. You used the wrong formula, but got the odds right.
There are a few questions, though:
1. Will you fold if you don't make the flush on the turn?
2. Will you have the BEST flush?
3. Will they raise it more if you call?
You have to figure what the pot WILL be, and what you will have to put in to it if 1 is false or 3 is true. Aside from that, about 5% of the time (IIRC), there will be two diamonds, which will make it much more likely that your flush is worthless. Edit: Even if that doesn't happen, you still have to take into consideration the possibility that one of your opponents have a higher flush.
However, ASSUMING that the other guy folds, then yes, you'd be getting 2:13 odds. Or something. I need sleep.
Edit2: Just looked it over again. Changed calls to folds.
Last edited by LordRahl86; 07-03-2007 at 10:08 PM.
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07-04-2007, 09:40 AM
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Fish Food
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordRahl86
Your chance of making a flush here is actually 36%. It's outs (which are nine) * 2 * cards to come. Since I assume you're folding if you don't make it on the turn, it would be 18% to make it on the turn. You used the wrong formula, but got the odds right.
There are a few questions, though:
1. Will you fold if you don't make the flush on the turn?
2. Will you have the BEST flush?
3. Will they raise it more if you call?
You have to figure what the pot WILL be, and what you will have to put in to it if 1 is false or 3 is true. Aside from that, about 5% of the time (IIRC), there will be two diamonds, which will make it much more likely that your flush is worthless. Edit: Even if that doesn't happen, you still have to take into consideration the possibility that one of your opponents have a higher flush.
However, ASSUMING that the other guy folds, then yes, you'd be getting 2:13 odds. Or something. I need sleep.
Edit2: Just looked it over again. Changed calls to folds.
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the formula they gave me was multiply the outs by two and then add two for a rough percentage. is dat correct? And if you were planning to stay to 5th street then you would actually double your outs since it would give you 2 chances to hit them, and then multiply by 2 and add 2. isn't that correct? and then if you were plannning to go to 5th street you would of cours take the future bets into account right?
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07-04-2007, 10:12 AM
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Super Moderator
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Nottingham, UK
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Your formula is pretty much right but you added wrong in the original post.
You said 8x2 +2 = 34, it's actually 18% (  )
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07-04-2007, 12:37 PM
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Fish Food
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Join Date: Jun 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidab157
Your formula is pretty much right but you added wrong in the original post.
You said 8x2 +2 = 34, it's actually 18% (  )
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ya but if your staying for the river it would be right, right?
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07-04-2007, 01:42 PM
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Super Moderator
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StealYourCash
ya but if your staying for the river it would be right, right?
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If that bet closes the action to seeing both the turn and river then you could count it as 9 outs x 2 x 2 = 36% which is more or less right. If it's one street it's ~18%
You got the sum wrong in the original post but you have the right idea.
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07-04-2007, 02:03 PM
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Fish Food
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Join Date: Jun 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidab157
If that bet closes the action to seeing both the turn and river then you could count it as 9 outs x 2 x 2 = 36% which is more or less right. If it's one street it's ~18%
You got the sum wrong in the original post but you have the right idea.
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ok and to figure the pot percentage you would take (say the bet is 4 cents to call and another guy is already in it and the original raiser makes the total pot 32cents) you would take 4 cents and divide by 32 adn multtiply by one hundred?
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07-04-2007, 02:16 PM
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Poker Hustler
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Yes, but remember that you're assuming here that they don't raise it afterwards. Be careful with this. You also have a fairly low flush here.
...And remember that you have 9 outs, because there are 4 diamonds out there and 13 total in the deck. 13-4=9.
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07-05-2007, 02:36 AM
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Mike McDermott
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Join Date: Oct 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StealYourCash
outs=8 (x2 b/c of the turn and the river) outsx2+2=34%
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David re read, his maths was fine, he just got the number of outs wrong as Lord pointed out
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07-05-2007, 02:48 AM
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Super Moderator
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jharding666
David re read, his maths was fine, he just got the number of outs wrong as Lord pointed out
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I'm so confused, lol.
Quote:
my chances of of making a flush (the best hand in this situation i believe) are:
34% roughly? outs=8 (x2 b/c of the turn and the river) outsx2+2=34%
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He's made 8 x 2 + 2 = 34. I'm bad at maths but I'm sure that's not right. 
EDIT: I just read it properly, ignore me!
To clear things up (kinda):
-The flush draw is 9 outs.
-On the flop the bet to call is 4c, pot is 32c.
-Our odds of hitting by the next card are ~20%, which is 4:1 (100%/20%-1):1
-Our pot odds are 32c (pot)/4c (bet) = 8:1
-Therefore our odds are good enough to call profitably, and you can re-evaluate the odds on the turn if there is another bet.
I won't go into implied odds and reverse implied odds, not at this time of the morning. 
__________________
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