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Go Back PokerForums.org > General > Poker Newbies > What exactly is variance?

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Old 05-24-2006, 10:52 AM
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Default What exactly is variance?

I think i it's has something with how much u make but im not sure.
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Old 05-24-2006, 10:55 AM
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Variance is deviation from the norm.

Lets say that you average 2 bb / 100 over 10,00 hands. If, over a run of 500 hands your rate is 3 bb/100 or 0 bb /100, that is varicance from your normal rate. Basically it's just when you run exceptionally good or exceptionally bad for a period of time.
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Old 05-24-2006, 11:12 AM
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Variance is the reason that I thought I was a poker god for almost a month and now I am just wallowing at breakeven!
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Old 05-24-2006, 12:06 PM
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lol...and variance is the reason that I haven't played poker in 4 days because I've been running so bad.
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Old 05-24-2006, 12:11 PM
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variance is why that ass monkey with an 85% VPIP is up 60bb in 200 hands of limit holdem.
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Old 05-24-2006, 12:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beavis68
variance is why that ass monkey with an 85% VPIP is up 60bb in 200 hands of limit holdem.
LMAO! Very well stated!
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Old 05-24-2006, 01:04 PM
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Some things I had said before regarding variance:

Variance can be used to describe the fluctuations in one's stack or bankroll. It's why favorites don't always win. Fortunately, theory states that probability eventually wins the battle against variance.

The thing about probability is that it must pan out only in the long run. How long is the long run? We don't know, but to give you an idea, J.M.Keynes once said "in the long run we are all dead." Aces losing 10 times in a row doesn't even show up on the long run radar.

You can influence your variance by how you play. Playing riskier hands, "gambling it up," and making moves out of position will increase your variance. Large pots will also increase your variance.
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Old 05-24-2006, 01:18 PM
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if you multi table, your variance will go down. so if you have issues w/ variancve, maybe play 3 tables.
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Old 05-24-2006, 02:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gder03
if you multi table, your variance will go down. so if you have issues w/ variancve, maybe play 3 tables.
Think this one through for a sec. Multitabling has at least two impacts on your variance.

1) You play many more hands in the same period of time. So, assuming there is no impact on your effectiveness from multitabling, your variance is the same per hands played, but much smaller for the amount of time played. So gder03 is correct that your variance is smaller than it would be if you played one table for the same period of time. (JUST A CLARIFICATION.)

2) Remember that #1 is dependent on "assuming there is no impact on your effectiveness from multitabling. So, I would consider this advice to be reckless if you do not also consider that multitabling WILL impact your effectiveness...and almost always in a negative way. I would guess that the seriousness of this impact is not significant for most players, and the benefits of multitabling for winning players almost always outweights the downsides (IMO). However, for a few, multitabling could have a huge negative impact.

I multitable (usually 3 at a time) and recognize that is does have a small negative impact on my earnings at any one table...but I make up for the minor loss by multiplying my slightly lower earnings by three.

So, IF you are a winning player AND you can effectively manage multitabling, then by all means take gder03's advice and multitable.
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Old 05-25-2006, 05:40 AM
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I think that variance is greater with limit espeically at lower levels than in NL(if you're good at NL)

NL, it's easier to play the person, where as in limit, due to the amounts of fish and people who won't fold (in my experience) you have to play more of a maths game. So in essence what i'm saying is, that if you're a very good poker player, you have far more control over the outcome of events in NL than limit, thus variance is reduced. Conversely, if you were a weakish player, the opposite may be true.

That's just speaking from my own personal experience.
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