a question for you poker pros out there

**troysouth** · 12-20-2010

Too make a long story short, ive been playing online for 2 years now and have had times where i have run poorly over the space of a few weeks but eventually a first place in a tournament keeps bringing me out of losses and into profit. Now i understand every theory of poker, luck and skill and the fact that you do NEED to run DECENT in order to get any big win aswell as staying calm and composed throughout.

Today for me is just any regular day, and after cashing $50 from an $11 tournament on pokerstars yesterday (sunday 1/4 mill) i decided to register for four tournaments today all starting within half an hour of each other.

The first tournament is the daily 40k for $11 which has a pretty big prize pool. The tournament was over for me in my first hand, where i was knocked out with AA v QQ as the board came down, 5,8,9,J,10 . I was disgusted at this river, but all of a sudden , 2 hands into my other tourny im holding KK on a 12k turbo tournament and i also have kk on my other tournament so thats kk at the same time on 2 tournys. Firstly All in vs 55 and 88 looking good to triple up in early stages, and just as expected the 55 catches quads. then all in on the other one vs 99 still with exactly the same chips i started with (3000) and the 99 hits a club flush. Now im still in the other tournament doing pretty poorly hitting absoluteley nothing but i had to start this thread to ask all you poker pros out there, i can accept a bad beat every now then but to get knocked out of all four of my tournaments within the first 5 hands of all of them is just insane, the question is, is this really the probabilities of poker?? if this is how it goes and my AA's and KK's get me knocked out wouldnt i have a better chance betting on a horse who is favourite to win????? i am ashamed to even say this as poker was a game i once loved but i would love to see a few answers. Thanks for your time,

Troy

**sweeper22** · 12-27-2010

That's online poker...it's a business where the odds are skewed to keep the average joe winning. I don't see the same kind of bad beats live at all. And this is comparing number of hands..not time (cause I know we see more hands in an online sitting). Just my 2 cents.

**KnightofNarg** · 12-27-2010

Right in Harrington on Hold'em, he states "You can't win a tournament without getting lucky." Sorry to hear about your rough luck OP. I sympathize because you're seeking knowledge more than a shoulder to cry on, which is freaking awesome.

Some things to think about...
The chances of winning 5 70/30 all-ins is 16.8%, for 10 it drops to 5.76%. How many times are we in a 70/30 situation in a MTT?

Say it's a 1000 person tournament, average player has a 1% chance to final table. Now say you're 3 times better than the average player...That makes it 3%. (I reserve the right to be wrong about this)

**sweeper22** · 12-27-2010

True and interesting thoughts.....

**Marm** · 12-27-2010

Betting on horses (and most other sports betting) is also considered a skill game. You could try that too.

**profnabeshin** · 12-27-2010

I played 8- $2 freezeouts on Full Tilt within about 2 days last month. I was eliminated from 6 of them with AA vs Ax. Some of them were suited some weren't. The odds catch up to you... as Knight said you play enough 70:30s and your odds of survival become slim.

**ImNotSpecial** · 12-28-2010

Dont read this if you dont want to hear me moaning about drunk players...

I understand your frustration, i had the same situation on 3 sng $50+2 double or nothings on Pstars last night with big hands against weaker ones...

I somewhat doubt that 'skill is involved in poker' after tonight at a live tournament.
I am considering giving up my local weekly tournaments because of tonight and the previous weeks game.

the club has had about 10-20 drunk young people turn up thinking their big shots not even understanding outs or hand odds, (anything above basic-LOL) and they call all ins with K4off and Q2off....
I saw a regular go all in with trips on flop earler, rainbow flop...
and one person called with over pair KK, another person called with air... for his entire stack. and got a runner runner straight....
I was fuming at this player and started to run my mouth at him, such comments as....
'Could you please f*** off back to what ever little whole you came from'
'Could you possibly spell poker, you dumb f***!!'

he replied, well i had 8 4... i had to go call.

another replied after calling an all in pre flop with 42off... well what if a 4 or a 2 comes... against my QQ..sure enough he rivered two pair

Tilted- i splashed the pot at him and told the manager if you let these players back in next week, and allow them to drink the amount they are drinking (approximately 12 pints each) - I am not returning ever... manager is a friend of mine and he just shook his head in disspointment.....

Ive lost all faith in poker being a game of skill when players like this exist, im tilted every week at live poker now.

and oh yeah i bust out QQ to 42off after 9pm, but before 9 i had lost KK to J6spades, of course he turned trips.... all in on flop....

This is me having a good old moan, ive had all the regulars moaning to me aswell....
Im thinking of putting a sign arond my neck whilst i play stating 'just take my chips, i fold AA preflop to your limp'
Poker is no longer poker where im from

**Marm** · 12-29-2010

Originally Posted by sweeper22

That's online poker...it's a business where the odds are skewed to keep the average joe winning. I don't see the same kind of bad beats live at all. And this is comparing number of hands..not time (cause I know we see more hands in an online sitting). Just my 2 cents.

AS you said, you see more hands, so regardless of your attempts to normalize, you still encounter an observers paradox. You just plainly see more hands in the same time frame (exponentially if you multi table), and it's hard to make objective comparisons.

But I do agree to your assertion that there is more bad play online than live.

The biggest reason, Stakes. You can multi table hour long sessions without risking anymore than lunch money online. Live on the other hand, the smallest games you could easily find are 1/2 NL, and possibly 1/2 Limit, but most start at 3/6. $100 is a large amount of money for some people to regularly risk for a hobby, on a nightly basis. The online game allows the hack players to play when they want, for whatever they want. They don't have to drive to the casino (For me, unless it's an underground game, is a 3+ hour drive), they don't have to wait (long, if at all) for a seat at a table. They don't have to face their opponents, don't have to look them in the eyes, when they make a horrendous play, and feel that hatred being bored down into them. (I know one guy had to leave the building just to cool down when my 35s beat him out in a WS 10K satellite event i played in a few years ago) It's just easier to boot up the machine, log on, eat some popcorn and have a beer on the couch while you play cards for 20 minutes.

But to the allegation that the games are rigged towards the bad players is pretty far fetched. There's no real incentive to do that for the larger sites, they have enough players to create rake, and have no idea to keep the fish alive. There will always be players to take their place.

The smaller sites though, well I avoid those, and this reason is one. The main reason, though, is that you don't get to pick your game as easily, they usually only have a couple tables of your game, and hopefully one of your limit. You also see the same players all the time, and these are usually bonus whores following the bonus trail, bouncing from site to site. Most of these players are to be considered skilled adversaries, ones I don't want at my table. Put me at a table full of Nemo's any day, and let me play 100,000 hands. Just play within your bank roll and the beats don't hurt as bad.

**ImNotSpecial** · 12-30-2010

''Just play within your bank roll and the beats don't hurt as bad.''

for my first 5 months playing, no1 ever told me this... i was huge fish..
i play well within my roll and i couldnt care less about beats now, unless their 1 outters

**Marm** · 12-30-2010

Originally Posted by ImNotSpecial

''Just play within your bank roll and the beats don't hurt as bad.''

for my first 5 months playing, no1 ever told me this... i was huge fish..
i play well within my roll and i couldnt care less about beats now, unless their 1 outters

Exactly.

A lot of people think poker is quick and easy money. It's not. It's a slow, calculated grind. Bankroll wise, it's a matter of small incremental gains. The big wins are nice, but can sometimes hurt you more than help. The big wins should be cashed out, letting you stay within your abilities.

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