Phil Ivey's chances to win the World Seris of Poker in November

[Steve Ruddock]

Now that we have a few months to debate the issue, thanks to the WSOP strange decision to delay the final table again (I'll save my thoughts on that for another post), here are my thoughts on Phil's chances.

I think the delay is going to help only one participant: Phil Ivey. I have three reasons for thinking this way:

1.) The other players were running hot (just as Phil was) to get as far as they did, and the delay will only serve to cool them off; ground them in reality so to speak. Even worse, some of them may lose a lot of the $1.2 million they earned, and start pressing at the final table. Poker has a lot to do with mentality: Loss of confidence can be crippling to your play.

2.) The time off gives each player the ability to analyze the others. Since Ivey is perhaps the most analyzed player, the other players will glean little useful information. On the other hand, Phil will be able to analyze and find weaknesses in his opponents games.

3.) Ivey's $10 million stack is large enough for him to avoid going into 'gambling mode'. The blinds will be at 150,000/300,000 with a 40,000 ante; giving Ivey about 12 rounds worth of chips. His best case scenario would be to double through Eric Buchman (35 million chips) or Steve Begleitter (30 million chips) basically putting himself into 3rd place and with enough chips to challenge chip leader Darvin Moon.

[obga]

while i never thought bout them gambling their earnings away already thats a very good point..

[MoreheadD]

Re: #2....one could argue that since Ivey probably is better at reading people on the fly, having several months off will diminish that advantage as it gives amateurs the chance to be coached. But whatever...

[azeldin]

Why the hell are they delaying the final table????

[bobg3]

I heard it was to build hype, but I don't see that happening since ESPN is just playing reruns of 2008. Would a LITTLE live coverage kill them?

[Bagonirix]

15%

[MoreheadD]

I think the line on Ivey is 6-1 at the moment.

[WotaWaster]

Or re No.2: Will Ivey even be arsed to watch any videos or just spend the next 3 months playing craps?

[Steve Ruddock]

I doubt he'd watch videos, but he knows a hell of a lot of poker players: Prett simple to ask all your poker pals "did you play with any of thee guys? Pick up anything on them?"

The other players don't have that luxury

[DrunkyDoggy]

They are giving Ivey 5-1 to win the Main.

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