this may help, reprinted with the authors permission
Calling With AK or TT In the Final Stages of a No-Limit Tournament
A solid player moves all in right before you and you are going to call, which hand would you rather hold TT or AK?
AK can be one of the more difficult hands to play in a No Limit Tournament. While AK is an underdog to any pair it is also a favorite over any 2 unmatched cards. Most people would assume that with the odds being so cut and dry it would be an easy decision, but what should you do if someone moves all in before you?
The strength of AK in this situation varies greatly based on the hands your opponent will move all in with, in this column I will give you 2 circumstances and the proper play to make.
Situation 1 - You are already in the money in a no limit tournament with an about average stack of 19,000 with the blinds at 500/1000 . A player with a stack of 9,000 moves all in from UTG and everyone folds to you on the button with AK. You know this opponent quite well and feel he would only move all in like this with a pair of 8s or higher or AK.
In this situation you will never be ahead in the hand and should fold, some people might say it is a coin flip, I say anyone who wants to flip a coin as 57/43 underdog please call me! Those happen to be your odds with AK against TT! Don't let those "coin flip" people fool you, and remember when your opponent has KK or AA you are a big dog, even with the extra 1,500 chips from the blinds this is an unnecessary gamble.
Situation 2 - Same scenario as before only you think this opponent is getting a little desperate and add AQ, AJs, and KQs to his possible holdings? Now the situation is a little trickier let's examine the possibilities for each holding and your overall chances to win.
There are 6 possible ways to be dealt each pair from 88-QQ. Giving us 30 possible combinations for you to be a slight underdog.
There are 3 possible ways for your opponent to be dealt AA or KK (remember you have an Ace and a King), giving us 6 time you will be dominated.
There are 9 ways for your opponent to be dealt AQ, 3 ways to be dealt AJs, and 3 ways to be dealt KQs (remember you have an Ace and a King). So 15 times you will be a big favorite.
In this situation you will be a heavy favorite 29% of the time, a slight underdog 59% of the time, and a big underdog 12% of the time. If everything holds to form and the situation came up 100 times you will win approximately 27 times in the coin flip situations, and 29 times when you are the favorite for a total of 588,000 chips you will lose approximately 32 of the coin flip situations as well as the 12 times you are behind for a total of 396,000 chips. Because of the added hands this situation has now turned into a call.
Now I will examine TT in the same 2 situations.
In situation 1 where your opponent will only play 88 or a higher pair and AK you will be a big favorite against 88 and 99 only. You will be a slight favorite against AK, and a big underdog to JJ, QQ, KK, and AA.
There are 16 possible combinations of AK, 12 combinations of 88 and 99, and 24 combinations of JJ-AA. With a 2 to 1 chance to be dominated rather than to dominate this is a pretty easy fold.
In situation 2 these results would change to, 40 combinations where you are a slight favorite, 12 combinations where you are a big favorite, and 24 combinations where you are a big underdog.
This is still a bad call, you will win 22 coin flip situations along with the 12 times you are a favorite for a total of 357,000 chips. You will lose 18 coin flip situations along with the 24 times you are dominated for a total of 378,000 chips.
As you can see a looser opponent helps AK a lot more than a hand like TT. But the more important figure in my view is the times you are dominated. AK will very rarely be dominated where TT will be dominated 3 times as often. Even JJ will be dominated twice as much as AK. This is one of the reasons you will hardly ever see a player muck AK before the flop at the end of a tournament, it almost always has a chance to win.
If I placed you in the above 2 situations which hand would you rather be holding AK or TT? Did your answer from earlier change?
You can run these scenarios yourself and loosen up your opponent to playing any pair or any Ace and change your hands around to AQ or JJ and see how they fare. Doing this will allow you to make the correct decision as well as giving you some great statistical information for when you find yourself in these situations, considering you would have to be a mathematical genius to do these calculations on the spot!
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