The 3bets were getting boring, metagame FTW

BossMedia Game #1167651673: Table Table TH 550 - $1.00/$2.00 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:38:41 - 2008/07/20
Seat 1: Seron ($205.00)
Seat 2: Picasso 2 ($216.25)
Seat 3: Hero ($224.90)
Seat 4: AngryMob ($249.35)
Seat 5: mal99 ($253.40)
Seron posts the big blind of $2.00
mal99 posts the small blind of $1.00
AngryMob is the button
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [ ]
Picasso 2 folds
Hero raises $7.00
AngryMob raises $26.00
mal99 folds
Seron folds
Hero raises $72.00
AngryMob goes all-in with $249.35
Hero goes all-in with $224.90
*** FLOP *** [ ]
*** TURN *** [[ ] []
*** RIVER *** [[ ] []
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $449.80 | Rake $3.00
Board: [7h JavaScript 3h 4h 5s]
Seron won ($0.00), mucks
Picasso 2 won ($0.00), mucks
Hero won ($449.80), showed [ ]
AngryMob won ($0.00), showed [ ]
mal99 won ($0.00), mucks


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

106,162,848 games 0.094 secs 1,129,392,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.852% 31.63% 00.23% 33574810 240585.50 { 6c5c }
Hand 1: 68.148% 67.92% 00.23% 72106867 240585.50 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

I'm baffled.

by?

There is $36 in the pot to win if we 4bet and he folds

We need to invest $217 to go all the way for a final pot of $450

Equity when all in = 31.852% (see stove analysis before)

EV when we get all in = -217 + (450*31.825) = -73.7875

The range I assigned him for shoving is 4.7% of all hands

So to work out how many hands he needs to be 3betting for this play to be breakeven we first need to work out how often we need him to fold:

36x -73.7875(1-x) = 0
109.7875x = 73.7875
X = 67.2%

So we need his range to be 14.33% of hands: 4.7/(1-0.672)

Perhaps this is a little wide, a rough outline of what 14.3% might look like:

66+,ATs+,KQs,QJs,J9s,T8s,97s,87s,ATo+,KQo,QJo,T9o

He is a fairly standard TAG and has been 3betting me on a pretty frequent basis. He may even 3bet all pocket pairs here and more random suited hands OTB.

Even if you don't think he ever 3bets this many hands there are metagame consequences that are worth something on a site without a huge player base.

You could have just said online poker is rigged and i knew it was coming. That would have been sufficient. Nice pot.

Originally Posted by George

You could have just said online poker is rigged and i knew it was coming. That would have been sufficient. Nice pot.

I'm an accountant who has been off work for a week and needs to crunch some numbers, can you tell?

In short you need to take a stand against these light 3bettors from time to time and low suited connectors are the best type of hands for doing so imo

Oh i can tell. Nice write up.

Originally Posted by jharding666

There is $36 in the pot to win if we 4bet and he folds

We need to invest $217 to go all the way for a final pot of $450

Equity when all in = 31.852% (see stove analysis before)

EV when we get all in = -217 + (450*31.825) = -73.7875

The range I assigned him for shoving is 4.7% of all hands

So to work out how many hands he needs to be 3betting for this play to be breakeven we first need to work out how often we need him to fold:

36x -73.7875(1-x) = 0
109.7875x = 73.7875
X = 67.2%

So we need his range to be 14.33% of hands: 4.7/(1-0.672)

Perhaps this is a little wide, a rough outline of what 14.3% might look like:

66+,ATs+,KQs,QJs,J9s,T8s,97s,87s,ATo+,KQo,QJo,T9o

He is a fairly standard TAG and has been 3betting me on a pretty frequent basis. He may even 3bet all pocket pairs here and more random suited hands OTB.

Even if you don't think he ever 3bets this many hands there are metagame consequences that are worth something on a site without a huge player base.

So, in short, "fuck him". no?

let's just say I still prefer AQ in that position.