3.6 to 1 odds
I know I was lucky, but was I smart or dumb to make this call?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t600/t1200
(Ante: t75)
3 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Button: t3330
SB: t3440
Hero: t8230

Pre-flop: (3 players) Hero is BB with
Button raises all-in t3255, SB raises all-in t3365, Hero calls t2165 (pot was t7820).

Flop: (t10210, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t9990, Sidepot 1: t220)


Turn: (t10210, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t9990, Sidepot 1: t220)


River: (t10210, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t9990, Sidepot 1: t220)


Results:
Final pot: t10210
SB showed 5h Kh
Button showed Ad Ts
Hero showed 4h Qc

__________________
"There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."

Was it stupid, maybe.. Was it a good call, yes.. You were in the CL, you weren't going to be crippled, you had the odds, and you got to see the flop for only T2400 more and I learned ALL too well lately that ANY 2 LIVE CARDS CAN PLAY! If you lose, your heads up with almost equal stacks, if you win, well, you win the tourney... So, If all of this was your thinking in making the call, then yeah, you made a great call..

Well played sir.

Im not so sure I agree with just_dude altho it could make sense.

I donnt know...seems like the odds or what not mite be right but im not making that call.

terrible call.

I am going to run this in the ICM and see. Blinds are pretty damn high.

I'm not usually a fan of posts like Beavis's that go into an in depth analysis of the %ages, odds, payouts and range of possible holdings.

But I'm inclined to agree with his comprehensive commentary on this occassion.

Payouts:
1st $15
2nd $9
3rd $6

Assumptions: Villains will not split pot. Loser of pot will finish 3rd (even if still has 110 chips left)

After posting the BB, I have 7000 chips (15k total in play)
If I fold, I will be HU 7k vs. 8k
Call it 50% I finish 1st; 50% second
T-Equity = $12

Now if I call....
If I lose the hand: HU 5k vs 10k
1st place 33%; 2nd place 66%
T-Equity = $11

If I win the hand:
1st place 100%
T-Equity = $15

x% = probability I win the hand
y% = probability I lose the hand

How often do I need to win the hand to have T-Equity of $12 (same as folding)?
15x + 11y = 12
x= 25%

I need to win this hand 25% of the time to be correct.
Do I have 25% Equity?
I can't access PokerStove now. What's my Equity vs. 2 opponents [any A; any K; any 2 broadway; any pair]?

__________________
"There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."

If you're only going to analyse it on a superficial level Yp how can we be expected to comment

I disagree. I like his analysis methods and I have adopted them for my own use.

Also, what's the liklihood of villains splitting the pot? That would be a disaster.

__________________
"There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."

Two countries separated by a shared language.

I put a little winking smiley thing on my second post to illustrate the application of what has previously been referred to a "dry British wit".



(ps. I like the analysis)