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Originally Posted by Naruto
Hey Stevey,
Well the reason I bet turn with my draw was to partly represent a K.. But mainly if someone raised me then i'd assume that they had at least 1 pair. So I was going to call, and if I hit my straight bet into them and hopefully get at least 3 BB out of them on river. If they called down and no flush landed and it was rag (like it was), I was going to continue betting, if someone reraises me it's auto muck  . Anyway I don't do this often of course and might even start doing it less... What's your flop percentage and/or VPIP in 10 handed limit Stevey? How bout yours Bonch?
That's an interesting thread from 2+2. But the hand there is nothing like my hand. I would not consider the 9s to be all that live, and wouldn't've even called the sb pf lol. And the backdoor draw outs are so tainted... Yeesh lol. I did like some of the responses tho.
Cheers,
Mike
PS. There's an interesting article on cardplayer.com about that SSH book by EM... |
My VPIP w/ 8-10 players is 17.26 on
PartyPoker.
K, I think your thought process was something like "The line I took was the best because it gave me the best chance of winning the pot, either by hitting my draw or by pushing them off their hand." This line of thinking, I believe, comes from your NL background. But usually in limit, your goal is to win chips, not pots. Because you only have a limited number of bets you can put in throughout the entire hand, you want to get the max EV you can out of every oppourtunity while minimizing the the amoung of EV you lose. NL is different b/c you can win someone's stack on any street. So your goal in limit is to win chips (ie maximize your EV) rather than winning pots.
When you look at your plan (bet until raised) in terms of EV, I think it is a losing plan. First you don't know if your initial bet is for value or not because you don't have any idea of how many people will call you, you can't be sure if your flush draw is good, and you can't be sure if someone else has a queen that would split the pot if you both hit. But there are two other things to factor in: if your bets get raised and the folding equity you gain by betting vs check-calling.
When you get raised, a few things can happen:
A)You get raised and get isolated, going heads up to the river
B)You get raised but get more some callers in between or cold callers, so you see the river multiway
When you get raised you also assume that you are up against a pair at least. To make this simpler, I assume you are up against at least a pair of kings, meaning hitting your queens are not outs.
You also assume that you can win 3BB on the river when your draw hits. This will almost never happen. When players, even loose players, get led into on the river when a draw hits, and they only have a pair, they turn passive and call, as they should. So winning 3BB on the river will happen only rarely. I think the max you can win is one more BB when your draw hits and you are up against a pair.
A) You end up putting in 2 BB on the turn on a 2:1 shot or 1/3 chance at winning. 1/3 of the time you win 3BB on the turn and river, since you get one more on the river. 2/3 of the time you lose the 2BB you put in on the turn.
(1/3)(+3) + (2/3)(-2) = 3/3 - 4/3 = -1/3 BB
B) The amount of BB you win increases when you hit your draw, but the fact that there are other callers implies that they have good draws as well (ie queens or higher club draws (is it likely that the fourth best flush draw, the 9c, called two cold on the turn? It's possible but definitely not likely.)) So now even though there are more BBs to win, it's also more likely that your flush draw is dead and that you split when your straight hits. Let's increase the total you can win from 3BB to 7BB (very rough estimate, pretty much pulled out of my ass). So ~1/5 of the time you hit your flush, but it's not always good, so let's make that 1/8 (another BS number) times that you actually win money when you hit it. Plus you lose about 2 more BB on the river when the flush isn't good, which is (1/5-1/8)=3/40 times, so we'll factor that in too. 1/6.5 times you hit your straight (6 outs), but sometimes you split, so let's say half the time you win all 7BB, half the time you win 3.5 BB. Okay now for the EV equation.
(1/8)(+7) + (1/2)(1/6.5)(+7) + (1/2)(1/6.5)(+3.5) + (2/3)(-2) + (3/40)(-4) = 0.04935 or about 0.05
So that's very close to neutral EV. Your results when you get raised are either neutral EV or -EV.
Now you say you get folding equity when you bet out instead of check-calling. Of course it's really hard to determine the amount of folding equity you gain, but when you bet basically your folding equity has to make up for the -1/3 BB you could potentially lose when you potentially get raised. In other words, betting and getting called instead of raised, has to be more than a +1/3 BB play.
EV of Betting
A)Bet, get raised, isolated = -1/3 BB
B)Bet, get raised, many callers inbetween/coldcallers = ~0BB
C)Bet, get called = (Must be more than +1/3 BB in order to make betting a +EV play)
You are losing EV if your betting on the turn and river does not give you more than 1/3 BB in the long run, so you need a LOT of folding equity, which I really don't think you have against 6 players on a broadway board.
Anywasy I was going to do the EV for check-calling, but seeing how long the first thing took I decided against it. The idea behind it though is that you are minimizing the EV you lose when you get raised. You lose the benefit of folding equity, but overall checkcalling is better for your EV, even if it means you end up winning the pot only when you hit your draw.
As for SSH, I haven't read it, so I couldn't really judge the article by Jim Brier but SSH will teach you a lot of things about what limit poker is about. IIRC, the writer isnt too critical of the book. But yea SSH probably explains what I just tried to explain about winning chips vs winning pots. And Im positive that it at least deals with the issue of semibluffing.
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