pot odds question!

**domi** · 02-23-2006

I hope I'm asking my question in the right forum category, if not I'm sorry...

I've just started calculating pot odds when I play, right now I calculate pot odds for mainly flush draws and straight draws.

by the way I play limit hold'em (play money)

I was wondering what to do when I'm drawing to someting else than the strongest hand!

for example, I was playing a hand and I had I like 2 spades as my hidden cards(something like 3sQs), then on the flop 2 other spades.

Say the pot is 100$ and it costs me 10$ to see the next card. so I figure I have 9 outs so about 18% chance of hitting a spade on the turn. And for that I have to pay only 10$ to have a chance of winning 100$. So basiclly good deal. I dont get the card I need on the turn so I do the same math for the river, figure it's also profitable to go for it.

on the river I get a spade, now I'm like soooo exited saying to myself your a genius... you can't lose if your calculating pot odds...

well I was soon saying to myself your an idiot cause the other guy had the same flush but ace hi...

anyway I guess my question is how do I deal with this : drawing to a hand that's not the strongest...

I figured I could lower my chances of winning %

for example if I have 9 outs (18% I) for the flush to the qeen, I could lower the 18% to say 16% to take into account someone having the flush he the ace or king.

Any suggestions appreciated
thanks in advance
dom

**gder03** · 02-23-2006

scientifically you would tweak the implied odds, not the pot odds. say you wanna be getting 5:1 on your $ for 9 outs on each street. hypothetically lets say the 5:1 is exactly break even. so add implied, and it is very + EV.

maybe if we do 4.5:1, its -EV, but with implied it will be break even.

anyway, i think the quation would have to consist of:
pot odds, miplied, and %cahnce smeone has higher flush.

so if you need 5:1, but its 50% chance he has higher drwa, you need to get 10:1. get it?

**domi** · 02-23-2006

yeah but how do I calculate how many chances he has a beter hand than me? That I can't do. Is there like a method?

**gder03** · 02-23-2006

obviously there is a method. calculating it would be tedious. search online for the odds of getting dealt a specific hand pf (Ax suited, Kx suited- all the ones that beat you). Add all the percents up (Ax% + Kx% ...). then Multiply this % by the number of players @ the table.

this is the % that somone out there has a draw that is higher than yours preflop.

this is Answer A

now i guess you'd have to caluclate what is the likely hood that they would see the flop with their hands. this will be an estimate. obviously less than 100%, and more than 0%. i dont know, maybe 38-45%?

this is answer B

now you multiply answer A by B, so in my example it would be Ax(.4)

this takes you to the flop. ON flop once again, you have to guess.

As you see this is tedious.
e: your home work is to take this equation i mapped out, find the preflop % for the hands, and crunch ythe numbers. then see what the % of somone beating your 23suited preflop is (interms of a higher 2 cards of the same suit)

ps. also make sure if the website or where ever you search says "chances of being dealt Ax suited" you devide by 4 b/c that is prolly including 3 suits that you dont care about.

**domi** · 02-24-2006

thanks for the answers gder,
too advanced for me to do in game lol
maybee later in my poker career!
dom

**G_The_Jester** · 02-24-2006

If you think that the player you are playing has a higher flush high card than yourself then discount those outs. eg if you have the Q you only have 7 outs to hit the flush (16%), but then why chase the flush.

As you do not know what cards he is holding you should be counting outs against all of the remaining cards in the pack. If you did know what he was holding then you wouldn't chase the flush in the first place.

**domi** · 02-24-2006

If I have 4 spades (two hidden + two on the table) and there are 13 spades in a deck that leaves 9 spades left. so I have 9 outs. thats I think 18% or 19%. If the pot is 100$ and I need to bet 10$, isn't it good to chase the flush?

**G_The_Jester** · 02-24-2006

yes but you are paying no attentionto the fact that your opponent may have a higher flush .. hence you are calculating all of the outs as your own

**razorburn** · 02-24-2006

Where'd you get 7 outs from? If the only chance he's got is that he's on a flush draw, either he has 9 outs that will win the hand, or he has none... If someone else is on a K or A flush draw, he has no outs that will win the hand. If nobody else does, he has 9 outs.

**The Real DeCoy** · 02-25-2006

Originally Posted by razorburn

Where'd you get 7 outs from? If the only chance he's got is that he's on a flush draw, either he has 9 outs that will win the hand, or he has none... If someone else is on a K or A flush draw, he has no outs that will win the hand. If nobody else does, he has 9 outs.

Its just misapplied. You should discount the outs, but not because there are 2 cards above the Q that cam beat you. All 9 make the flush, but I'd only be betting on about 5 of em because if hes got the nut or 2nd youre fucked.

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