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Thread: preflop odds

  1. #1
    Check Raiser dopemope223's Avatar
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    Default preflop odds

    i watch the wpt and i always hear mike sexton saying for a guy to call pf flop hes getting 3-1 on his money but only is a 2-1 underdog, which means it would be correct to call. i'll set up a situation and then ask my question
    = 65% equity vs. = 35% equity (preflop)
    now if the pot stands at 6000 and its 3000 to call,so the pot is offering 2-1, since the 10 9 suited is only a 2-1 underdog would it be correct to call or in reality are you getting 3.3 to 1 odds to call?
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    Last edited by dopemope223; 04-10-2011 at 12:42 AM.

  2. #2
    Mike McDermott gder03's Avatar
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    Default

    i think in reality your getting 2 to 1. so your getting justice for a call. however in this situation, i think my implied would be (-) b/c when i make flush i bust, if i hit two pair, and the KQ has strait, i bust, etc...
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  3. #3
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
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    Default

    The bet is 2-1 odds, (3k to win 6k), and you are only a 2-1 dog, so this is a break even play by calling.


    Except:

    equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
    Hand 1: 63.1063 % 62.75% 00.35% { KQs }
    Hand 2: 36.8937 % 36.54% 00.35% { T9s }


    So it is +EV to call here. But then you have to think of the variance, and do you want to risk that? That not a quantitaive thing, more of a UF thing, but thats where the phrase "passing on small EV to take advantage of bigger EV later" gets some of its meaning.
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  4. #4
    Check Raiser ypsieast's Avatar
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    Default

    Its easy to figure out if there is no more betting (someone is going all in).

    $6000 pot; $3000 to call
    Win 35% Lose 65%
    If you make this play 100 times:
    Win $9000 x 35 times = $315,000
    Lose $3000 x 65 times = $195,000
    Net winnings = $120,000

    However, in most cases there would be betting after the flop and on subsequent streets. This fact can dramatically alter your decision making. So just calling or folding based on pot odds is incomplete strategy.

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