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  1. #1
    Mike McDermott gder03's Avatar
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    Default YOu call raise or fold?

    smart player, dosn't call his chips off like most ppl. 1st match I bluffed my whole stack and he made a great call with pair of 4s, 2nd match i kicked his ass pretty fast, 3rd match.

    Hand #11878460-136 at TurboSnG-0008d (No Limit Hold'em Sit and Go)
    Powered by UltimateBet
    Started at 13/Feb/06 03:07:20

    gder03 is at seat 0 with 1375.
    prod382 is at seat 1 with 1625.
    The button is at seat 0.

    gder03 posts the small blind of 15.
    prod382 posts the big blind of 30.

    gder03: Tc Th


    Pre-flop:

    gder03 calls. prod382 raises to 60. gder03 re-raises to 180. prod382 calls.

    Flop (board: 5c 6d 2d):

    prod382 checks. gder03 bets 360. prod382 raises to
    1440.

    pretty much it right here. win/lose.

    i just ranked all those other threads. in the strat.
    Last edited by gder03; 02-12-2006 at 11:22 PM.
    I get more ass than a toilet seat. All shapes/colors/sizes.

    caution:
    http://girlvideos.blogspot.com/

  2. #2
    Check Raiser Fishodeath's Avatar
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    Default

    Thats a tought one... I'd probably put him on two cards higher than 10 w/at least one diamond which gives him alot of outs. Altho if he had a made flush I'd imagine he'd slowplay with you betting so strong.

  3. #3
    Check Raiser ypsieast's Avatar
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    Default

    Obviously a call here is for the ballgame. If you call and lose, its over. Lets also assume that if you call and win... you will surely finish him off. If you fold, you are down 2.5 to 1 in chips. What are your chances of winning, coming back from 2.5 to 1 against this guy? You indicate he's pretty solid. If you think a comeback is 40% likely, then I would say call all-in if you have better than 40% chance (or whatever you peg that number at) to win the hand.

    It seems most likely he has a pocket pair. AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 66, 55, 22 have you beat. (AA and KK a unlikely as he just called your reraise pf) You beat 99, 88, 77, 44, 33. (4 and 3 highly unlikely due to a check-raise w/ overcards on board). 5:3 unfavorable to favorable pps.
    He could be bluffing with overcards.
    He could have something like A6 or A5.
    Could be on the flush draw (I consider str8 or str8 draw unlikely).

    10% bluffing: you win 80%: 8%
    10% flush draw: you win 65%: 7%
    20% Ax(low pair): you win 80%: 16%
    35% overpair or set: you win 8%: 3%
    25% underpair: you win 92%: 23%

    Your likelihood of winning = 8+7+16+3+23 = 57%

    You might not agree with these numbers, but you can insert your own probabilities and figure it out. But I say unless you are 60% likely to come back and win after folding, then call.

    Call.

  4. #4
    Mike McDermott gder03's Avatar
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    Default

    I called expecting to lose,
    he had
    A 4 of diamonds so he had flush draw + gutshot + 3 aces, so a good aggressive play he made.
    I get more ass than a toilet seat. All shapes/colors/sizes.

    caution:
    http://girlvideos.blogspot.com/

  5. #5
    Check Raiser Fishodeath's Avatar
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    Default

    Your 10s hold up?

  6. #6
    Poker Professional Eclipse86's Avatar
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    Default

    i definately call this, because the range of hands that u beat here greatly outweighs, the ones that have u beat..

    if this guy has JJ+ then he would have re-raised or went all in PF.. if he had a set, he would not have played it so hard on the flop..

    chances are he has 2 over cards here.. or the flush draw + 1-2 overs with the semi-bluff.. or some other major draw, like the 78 of diamonds where he has OESD + FD..

  7. #7
    Mike McDermott gder03's Avatar
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    yeah, my TT dodged some massive bullets, and I won the match.
    I get more ass than a toilet seat. All shapes/colors/sizes.

    caution:
    http://girlvideos.blogspot.com/

  8. #8
    Poker Professional Eclipse86's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by gder03
    yeah, my TT dodged some massive bullets, and I won the match.
    nice job.

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