this is all from memory last week, i figured i would post it up and see if i played the hand wrong.

home game with probably 30 people, 3 of which i would say have actual poker talent. my ITM rate (according to my old charts) was like 45% LOL, and the usual turnout for the tournament is 20 people, so i cant stress enough its an easy game. $50 buy in i think blinds were around 1-2
we were all around even stacks, we arent close to the money, but all have healthy enough stacks to make it there if we play well. i remember having about 100, the others in the hand had slightly less, both had more than 60.

about an hour into the tournament, im sitting on the button with AA. UTG, matt, raises like 2X bb. in live games, i consider myself a near expert at physical tells and such, ESPECAILY in games in which i frequently play. i knew exactly what matt had, PF i was confident he had a some high cards such as AK or AQ. folds to the cutoff, graham. now graham is one of the players who i consider pretty decent, just calls, thus he would raise with AA, KK, QQ, and its to me. i raised here, a good ammount, i dont remember how much EXACTLY but ill say i called the 2x bb bet and raised to 7-10 bb. (knowing that matt would call this bet with high cards, and graham would probably fold whatever he had) matt doesnt think for too long and calls, graham contemplates for maybe 30 seconds, and calls. at that point i thought, well i know he doesnt have a top 10 hand (hes a good player and hes rasing with a top 10 hand. he knows im pretty agressive and might try to steal on the button, but i raised and he had his chance to push and he passed it up.)
anyways, flop is Kc 7c 8h. after calling the re raise matt(utg) had about $70, and moved in, and i smiled inside because i know matt and i knew this meant ace king, TPTK. scary part is, graham doesnt even think and says "call", pushing his chips into the pot.

i have AA on the button, 2 all in's in front of me, i had matt covered but if i called and lost i dont even think my M would have been 5. if i called and won, im chip leader in a tournament of blind people.

my reasoning:
forget about matt, you know you have him beat. graham didnt re raise preflop so i know hes not playing AA, KK, or QQ (likley holdings). he called preflop, he doesnt have a low king or 2 pair (hes a solid player, wouldnt play trash, knows to dump KQ there) AK is a very likley call for graham here, however i have 2 aces and matt has one, the chance of him having AK, (or any ace for that matter) are slim to none. and yes, i didnt KNOW matt had ace king, but i was 90% sure he had it, and 100% sure he had top pair.
so what reasonable hands can a reasonable player have here? i put him on a set of 7's or 8's, because the play makes perfect sense. calls a small bet PF, i raise, matt calls, and he thought for about 30 seconds, probably thinking "ok, i have a PP and im getting near 3-1 on my money pf, and the impled odds from wesley's(me) aces or kings will let me call this. so he calls to see a flop.
i figure he had a pp of 77 or 88, and folded the aces.
I WAS WRONG. graham made a completely out of charecter play with A8c (for a club flush draw on the flop) he wanted to gamble i guess

anyway, figuring what i did, do you fold this? i was criticized by some people at the table (but thought nothing of it, as they were poor players)

Graham made a good play post flop.

For every time you are beat there you are winning a lot more and tripling up. I like the reasoning and I'd be fearing the set as well, but I'd be prepared to pay him off if he has it and call.

Definately not tight aggressive.

DISCLAIMER: I am a noob

Why is it not tight aggressive? Isn't part of being tight knowing when to lay down?

Originally Posted by Irexes

For every time you are beat there you are winning a lot more and tripling up. I like the reasoning and I'd be fearing the set as well, but I'd be prepared to pay him off if he has it and call.

Definately not tight aggressive.

i know this. which is why if i didnt know the players, say it was the world series of poker, day 1, and this exact same scenario occured only i had no information about the players. what do i do? its an OBVIOUS call and i push my chips into the pot, on the sole fact that im going to be winning in that spot more than losing. so, you are right, but im asking you to think about it knowing what i knew.

if you think about it the way i did, i would say alot of that probability that makes it a call is negated when a player such as graham makes a call there, right? what i mean is, MOST of the time, graham will make the call there with a set. SOME of the time, he will play out of charecter and have queens, A8c, etc. so i used your exact reasoning Irexes, only opposite, i thought that he will be calling enough there with a hand that beats me enough to make it a fold.

does that make sense? i know i still probably still should have called, but i still had plenty of chips left if i folded, and if i called an was wrong im pretty much out.

Originally Posted by MTdemocrat

DISCLAIMER: I am a noob

Why is it not tight aggressive? Isn't part of being tight knowing when to lay down?

he means its not tight agressive because the style of tight agressive is only making profitable bets, and when i folded, it wasnt a profitable bet, because if you replay that hand say 100 times, i will have made money by calling each time.
and thats still with not knowing their hands^ just that most of the time i will be winning.

I'm with you on your explanation and reasoning TA but even then I still think it's a call, though one where you will be hoping to win rather than necessarily expecting to. I play a weekly homegame where I have decent reads on my opponents and a couple are similar players to your guy in that they will only make big moves with real strength. Now there have been occassions where I've made decent laydowns against them with good hands myself (two pair or better) but they tend to be after the turn or river with more information and usually in the face of a straight or flush (or paired board).

Laying down an overpair with a board that has yet to co-ordinate is a hell of a move - particularly with equity in the pot created by the third guy on who you indeed have an excellent read.

In a tourney I am folding. If they are as bad as you say, and your reads on them is as good as you say, then you will get a spot to get your chips in when you KNOW you are ahead.

In a cash game I call because I am going to let the odds work over time, and it is a +EV bet.

But thats just me and my constant battle of survivability vs profitability in tourney vs ring games.

Originally Posted by Antneye

In a tourney I am folding. If they are as bad as you say, and your reads on them is as good as you say, then you will get a spot to get your chips in when you KNOW you are ahead.

In a cash game I call because I am going to let the odds work over time, and it is a +EV bet.

But thats just me and my constant battle of survivability vs profitability in tourney vs ring games.

exactly, i folded because i figure im probably beat. with grahams range of calling hands, im winning when he calls maybe 25% of the time (random figure), and since like PJ said the odds were around 2.5:1, this doesnt match up. and, i knew i could get a better spot later on down in the tournament.