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  1. #1
    Fish
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    49

    Default Backdoor Flushdraw play?

    I've come across a few hands where it's raised preflop and I'm holding A7s. Flop hits me with backdoor flush draw say, (Qh,2S,8c and my suited hand is clubs). Let's say I'm playing middle to late position with three others in hand. Everyone checks and button (who originally raised preflop), bets. If the rest of the players call without raising is this hand worth continuing?
    Seems to be a longshot hand, but I've run across it a couple of time and wonder how others play it.

  2. #2
    Stu Ungar Mr.McJ's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Toronto, Ontario
    Posts
    2,403

    Default

    Ya...I was way off. lol.
    See below for a better answer.
    Last edited by Mr.McJ; 02-09-2006 at 12:38 PM.

  3. #3
    Check Raiser ypsieast's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    773

    Default

    Prob. of a flush: 4.2% / 22 to 1 odds
    Prob. of 2 pair or trips: 1.4% / 70 to 1 odds

    Now, lets consider str8s:
    1) 2 x OE straight (Ex: you have A7 and flop is 56x; you have 3 consec. to str8)
    prob of completing: 3.0% / 32 to 1 odds

    2) gutshot to OE str8 draw (Ex: you have A7 and flop is 58x; you need a 6 and then its OE)

    prob of completing: 1.5% / 66 to 1 odds

    3) 2 x gutshot str8 draw (Ex: you have A7 and flop is 59x; you need a 6 & 8)

    prob. of completing: 0.5% / 199 to 1

    If I'm not mistaken, you can add these separate probabilities.

    Best case example: Assuming 2 pair or better is good:
    You have A7s
    Flop: 5s6hQs

    Prob of flush: 4.2%
    Prob of 2 pair or trips: 1.4%
    Prob of str8: 3.0%

    Total probability of hitting a hand: 8.6% Odds: 11-1
    Of course, the probability of getting an Ace (if you think TP is good enough) is 12.5% / 7 to 1 odds

    I don't know how to do the math to answer: what are the odds of getting either TP, 2 pair, trips, str8 or flush? Maybe someone else can answer that.

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