Obviously in a cash game that is the case. You always want the odds on your side because in the long run you make $. If you could get someone to call you all in when you have a straight and they have a flush draw, you'd be a rich man in 20 years. However, in tournament play I think there is a case to be made for not pushing too hard until you see the turn. My team has been working a tournament strategy and this is a key point. Here is the short version: (this does NOT work for the Gus Hansen types, its designed to make the final table and not be short stacked, thats it).

In the early and middle stages of a tournament the object is not "to win" necessarily but more to "not lose". The only time you can lose is when you put all of your chips in the middle and the fewer times you do that, the smaller the chance gets of you losing. Early in a tournament if you have a straight and there are two suited cards on the board and you make a pot sized bet, someone might raise you all in (giving them the Doyle Bruson "two chaces to win"), but you pretty much have to call with the nut straight (folding is kinda silly and way too tight). Now this senario is a good thing for you because you are about 2-1 to win assuming they have a flush draw. However, if over the course of a tournament you have to make this same play 3 or 4 times, the odds of you losing at some point over all of these all ins goes up. Eventually someone will draw out on you. Hopefully its after you've won a couple and you've got chips to spare. But lets look at a different strategy. What if you make a smaller bet at that same flop (one that could be classified as a "feeler")? They will most likely call and NOT go all in. Then the turn comes and its a blank. NOW you can push really hard because the odds are much better, you are now 4-1 to win and people are much less likely to call a flush draw with only 1 card to come. So you probably won't have to be all in and even if you are you've got a better shot to win. This strategy (while still young) is showing great early returns. I've made the final table of the last 3 MTT's I've played and I've used this strategy. Last time myself and both of my teammates played in the same MT tournament, we finished 3,4,5. It doesn't work well for SnG's because you are already at the "final table" there. Once you get to the final table, all bets are off.

NOTE: I know a lot of you are going to disagree with me and tell me the books say I'm wrong. I already know that lol. However, a large part of poker is finding something that works for you. This works for me and I'm throwing it out there as something else to try. Also, I understand that the odds are just as good on the 3rd all in as on the first two (the whole if you flip a coin and its heads 5 times in a row, the 6th flip is still 50/50), I was looking at this from the back end. If you have to go all in 6 times as a 2-1 favorite, you're gonna lose twice.

Originally Posted by SHADE

If you're confident you can outplay people in the latter stages of the tournament, I think there's a case to be made for not putting your neck on the chopping block in the early stages

Yeah, thats the plan . You gotta be around at the end to have a chance at outplaying them.

Originally Posted by SHADE

On the final tables/late tournaments you've made employing this strategy, what sort of chip stack have you had on average in relation to others still alive at that stage of the tournament?

Looking at the last 3 (the only times I've really used this), I was chip leader on the first one, I was 4th in chips (slightly above average) on the second. The third time I was going to be right at the average but 10 minutes before we wound up cutting I took a massive bad beat that left me with about 1/7 the average stack. (I bet my flopped flush, guy thought I was bluffing and raised me all in with rockets, I call and the system has worked!, only snag? he catches runnng 10's to make a boat ). So I think more data is needed . I can say that I don't think I will be chip leader very often for the very reason of not getting full value. But since I'm risking less I will be at more final tables. I'd rather be at 10 final tables as an average or slightly less than average stack than I would to make 2 final tables as chip leader both times. Again, thats just how I like to play, others play different.

Originally Posted by SHADE

How do you play if the third card of the suit hits on the turn/river? Another feeler-type bet and then lay it down to a re-raise? I think this is the really key situation for the strategy you outline...does it leave you open to being bluffed off of pots because you've under-represented the strength of your hand? (I'm aware there's also a converse here...how often do you suck in more chips from people who wouldn't have called a pot-sized bet after the flop but who get bold after the turn or river thinking you hold less of a hand than you really do?)

It depends if I put him on a flush draw or not. They're not ALWAYS on a draw. Hopefully I'll be able to correctly read them. I mean, if I make a decent raise preflop with AsKh and the flop is QsJc10s, its not likely the guy is on a flush draw if hes tight. So at this point I'm not worried. But if hes loose and prone to playing 97 suited, I have to adjust accordingly. If I get re-raised significantly by a tight player and if I'm behind I'd be drawing dead, I'm likely to fold. Usually if someone does that once and it works, they'll try it again at some point and if I think they're weak they're gonna see all my chips in the middle. Both things you said are true, I probably do get bluffed a little more and I get more calls with TPTK than I might otherwise get.

Remember, most things in poker are situational, this is only a guide. In the same situation against different players you might make the complete opposit play. This is designed to avoid risking all the chips but sometimes you have to. I don't like going all in but when I'm confident they're bluffing or I need to make a stand, or if I have the best hand and think I'll get called, they're they go

bosox... why do you feel your strategy does not work at the final table or in a SNG? It sounds like your betting strategy is based in part on psychology. Namely, you feel (and your results seem to show) that players on a nut draw will rationalize and call almost any bet with 2 cards to come, but give in and fold to big bets with only one card to come. If it really is the psychology of betting that is convincing players to make bad calls on the flop and good folds on the turn, then why don't you expect to see the same psychology playing out at the final table?

Could you also comment on why you consider this strategy to be applicable only when you flop a straight with a strong flush draw presented? E.g., would you apply your betting strategy when you flop a set with a strong flush draw out?