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  1. #1
    Poker Hustler Trons's Avatar
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    Default Did I have the odds to pull this move?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (8 handed) converter

    BB (t4710)
    UTG (t1085)
    UTG+1 (t730)
    MP1 (t3595)
    MP2 (t2055)
    Hero (t750)
    Button (t680)
    SB (t1395)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with , .
    1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t730, MP1 calls t730, 1 fold, Hero raises to t750, 3 folds, MP1 calls t20.

    Here is my reasoning. my M is low...I have a decent hand, I didn't expect MP1 to have much because the size of his stack and what he had to call to knock the other guy out and I figured I wouldn't get a better hand...WITH better odds on my money before I was blinded out...was this the right time to make this call?

    Flop: (t2530) , , (3 players)

    Turn: (t2530) (3 players)

    River: (t2530) (3 players)

    Final Pot: t2530

    Results in white below:
    UTG+1 has Th Ks (straight, jack high).
    MP1 has 3s As (high card, ace).
    Hero has Qh Td (straight, queen high).
    Outcome: Hero wins t2530.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jason75
    I like trons' advice.
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  2. #2
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
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    Default

    Insta fold for me... Somebodies got you beat here......
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

    Luck is a Residue of Design.

  3. #3
    change my title babo bonchkid's Avatar
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    Default

    Well lets see, UTG's range is huge(almost any two). We're not really scared of him; however, if MP1 is halfway decent he must have a hand here with all the players behind him. He's gotta have 77+, AQ+ KQ maybe
    foldzor
    “There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

  4. #4
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
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    Default

    Using Bonchs hand range there, we get with pokerstove:

    equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
    Hand 1: 24.8408 % 24.10% 00.74% { QhTd }
    Hand 2: 28.2952 % 26.72% 01.58% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
    Hand 3: 46.8641 % 45.68% 01.19% { 77+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+ }


    looks like you needed 3-1 odds, and you were getting about 2-1
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

    Luck is a Residue of Design.

  5. #5
    Poker Hustler Trons's Avatar
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    Ok, here was my thinking. I didn't put MP1 on that wide of a range of hands. Everybody behind him had been playing super tight. I figured if he had any type of decent hand, including the range that bonch mentioned, he would have raised to get get people out. When he called, (which I expected at least a call from him) instead of reraising, I discounted a serious hand...

    I figured I was up against 2 almost completely random hands and getting 2:1 on a hand I probably would have pushed with had it been folded to me, I figured I couldn't pass up those odds...

    This was my thinking when I was trying to decide what to do...is this not a correct thought process?
    Quote Originally Posted by Jason75
    I like trons' advice.
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  6. #6
    PokerForums God
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marm
    Insta fold for me... Somebodies got you beat here......
    dont have too much to add to this.

    You have a hand that is dominated, i would rather have 76s than QTo in this spot. Plus you are in late position and can hopefully get a chance to be first in the pot.

    I think I would need at least AQs to call here though.

  7. #7
    Poker Hustler Trons's Avatar
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    Ok, I think we can determine that while it payed off, it was a bad move. BTW, I ended up winning this one...this was my second STT win for the day so I was pretty happy about it.

    Thanks again for all the comments.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jason75
    I like trons' advice.
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  8. #8
    Check Raiser
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    I don't like to call all-in in those situations... I want to be the one attacking.

    I simply don't call with marginal hands. I either bet or fold... if someone beats me to raising, oh well. Hands like QTo come along pretty frequently... you'll get another shot
    -You may not know this, but poker is a game of incomplete information.

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