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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > General Poker Strategy > Did I have the odds to pull this move?

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Old 01-31-2006, 01:42 PM
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Default Did I have the odds to pull this move?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (8 handed) converter

BB (t4710)
UTG (t1085)
UTG+1 (t730)
MP1 (t3595)
MP2 (t2055)
Hero (t750)
Button (t680)
SB (t1395)

Preflop: Hero is CO with , .
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t730, MP1 calls t730, 1 fold, Hero raises to t750, 3 folds, MP1 calls t20.

Here is my reasoning. my M is low...I have a decent hand, I didn't expect MP1 to have much because the size of his stack and what he had to call to knock the other guy out and I figured I wouldn't get a better hand...WITH better odds on my money before I was blinded out...was this the right time to make this call?

Flop: (t2530) , , (3 players)

Turn: (t2530) (3 players)

River: (t2530) (3 players)

Final Pot: t2530

Results in white below:
UTG+1 has Th Ks (straight, jack high).
MP1 has 3s As (high card, ace).
Hero has Qh Td (straight, queen high).
Outcome: Hero wins t2530.
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Old 01-31-2006, 01:44 PM
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Insta fold for me... Somebodies got you beat here......
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Old 01-31-2006, 01:52 PM
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Well lets see, UTG's range is huge(almost any two). We're not really scared of him; however, if MP1 is halfway decent he must have a hand here with all the players behind him. He's gotta have 77+, AQ+ KQ maybe
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Old 01-31-2006, 01:57 PM
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Using Bonchs hand range there, we get with pokerstove:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 24.8408 % 24.10% 00.74% { QhTd }
Hand 2: 28.2952 % 26.72% 01.58% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 46.8641 % 45.68% 01.19% { 77+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+ }


looks like you needed 3-1 odds, and you were getting about 2-1
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Old 01-31-2006, 02:20 PM
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Ok, here was my thinking. I didn't put MP1 on that wide of a range of hands. Everybody behind him had been playing super tight. I figured if he had any type of decent hand, including the range that bonch mentioned, he would have raised to get get people out. When he called, (which I expected at least a call from him) instead of reraising, I discounted a serious hand...

I figured I was up against 2 almost completely random hands and getting 2:1 on a hand I probably would have pushed with had it been folded to me, I figured I couldn't pass up those odds...

This was my thinking when I was trying to decide what to do...is this not a correct thought process?
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Old 01-31-2006, 02:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marm
Insta fold for me... Somebodies got you beat here......
dont have too much to add to this.

You have a hand that is dominated, i would rather have 76s than QTo in this spot. Plus you are in late position and can hopefully get a chance to be first in the pot.

I think I would need at least AQs to call here though.
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Old 01-31-2006, 02:44 PM
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Ok, I think we can determine that while it payed off, it was a bad move. BTW, I ended up winning this one...this was my second STT win for the day so I was pretty happy about it.

Thanks again for all the comments.
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Old 01-31-2006, 09:46 PM
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I don't like to call all-in in those situations... I want to be the one attacking.

I simply don't call with marginal hands. I either bet or fold... if someone beats me to raising, oh well. Hands like QTo come along pretty frequently... you'll get another shot
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