5 players left in an MTT I played yesterday
Blinds 5K/10K

SB has 60K
BB has 70K
UTG has 130K (he's a very good player.... I see him often on final tables)
UTG+1 has 40K
ME 120K

5th place 430$
4th place 590$
3rd place 900$
2nd place 1800$
1st place 2700$

UTG limp
It's really not a standard play for him... at this point I put him on AA or a low PP (I know he can limp one of these 2 hands... only flaw I found in his game yet)
UTG+1 Folds

I have AsKs
I decide to raise 40K. If he have AA he will reraise all in and I'll fold if he have a low PP he may call or fold, and if one of the blind go all in, I'm comfortable calling tehm with AKs

Blinds fold

UTG thinks for almost all his time bank and calls.

flops come 9JJ
He thinks and bet 30K
Wow... I like it very much, cause now I'm 99% sure he is on a low PP and he just take a shot at the pot. AA KK QQ would have go all in PF, a J checks the flop. P9s same thing... Now I have a back door FD, back door SD, 2 overs + a 9 that gives me the pot + he may fold 1/4 (very conservative) of the time I go all in. making me sligtly favorie to win this hand if I push (any way I have very good pot odds.

I push

He say ''Dam, I knew you would push AK... but do you have AK!!!''
I reply ''I'm still favorite'' (is that a mistake in your opinion, should I shutt up)
Thinks for almost all his time bank again, and calls with 66...

Of course, turn and river blank, if not I would have consider me a genius and post it in the glory corner!!!

My logic here was, if I fold I may went out 5th or 4th on a bad break any way, but if I take the pot, I cruise to 2nd place have a very good shot for the grand prize.

The Danish boy who won the pot said ''very good raise, I almost let it go''
The other 3 tought I was crazy to go all in with 2 over cards...

Waiting for comments...

KJ

well, your read was good...very good...BUT...

While your draws are present, the way I count your odds are...3A, 3k, 39, and count the SD and FD as 1 out combined...that's 10 outs...Since you're contimplating pushing, you have no implied odds...I count 95k in the pot when you push 70-80k...IF he calls...If he has the small PP that you think, he's a 3:2 favorite.

HoH suggests making a continuation bet in this circumstance, but also leave yourself a way out. I could be wrong, but with the board the way it was, a half pot bet probably would have been better. The AI looks like a steal (to me) and with the board, which is very non-threatening because the odds of you holding 99 or a J with your PF raise are slim...He's either got to put you on an over pair, or the AK that you had. Given his comments, and your response, he put you on the AK and figured he was the favorite...which he was.

With 80k left after the flop, after having fought this hard to get where you are, I may have put in a 30K bet to see where I'm at...if he calls, I put him on the small PP and decide that I'm beat and I'm check/folding from there...unless one of my cards hit

You're read was great, but your execution was flawed (imho). Since I've been playing more tournaments, I'm begining to like AK less and less...unless they hit the flop. I don't mind putting the raise in PF, but post flop, especiailly if you put them on a made hand like a pair, and you can't beat them, then I'm check/folding after my continuation bet fails.

[QUOTE=Beavis68]how do you figure you are a favorite? did the flop give you a flush draw? You had the odds, but you were not a favorite. You were about a 3:2 dog and you were getting better than 2:1 on your money if he called.
QUOTE]

I mean I will take the pot more than 50% of the time considerintg he will fold 1 time out of 4 to a raise. And he almost did...

not defending y play, just explain why I said I was favorite...

KJ

Dont respond to chat when you are all in on a big hand. My immediate thinking on that response is that its the truth by the way you wrote it, but it also implies that you do not have full confidence in your hand leading me to think that you haven't made a thing or you have a small pp too in which case its lending to the argument to call. I wouldn't base my whole decision on this of course, but its one of the thinking factors that I would be using sitting in his postion with those hole cards.

The other thing that has me flinch in your shoes is the fact that you did put him on a small pp AND you stated he is a very good player. Why even get into it with Anna when you will still be 2nd stack at the table. You know you have to draw, and youre making it 50K more to him with a pot of 175k.

Now he knows you dont have a 9 or a J cause you would have put the tits on him. The push to me says weakness and the pot odds compel the call.

Just my thoughts, I'm not that good, but thats how I see it. This in fact is my classic blunder late in tourneys. I get good but not great hands and get a big ole boner for em even when they miss the flop and donkey-train at the pot without considering how my play is going to be viewed. You may have confused him more with a reraise not AI, but I still think the right play would have been to get out.

Good thought provocation on the thread...you get some rep points from me! Woot!

Originally Posted by Trons

I count 95k in the pot when you push 70-80k...

HoH suggests making a continuation bet

Again not defending, just try to clear things up:

I could'nt make a continous bet on the flop cause I was 2nd to act and he put 30K in a 95K pot making it 125K... very weak bet IMO telling me he is willing to fold to a raise...

KJ

Originally Posted by The Real DeCoy

Good thought provocation on the thread...you get some rep points from me! Woot!

Rep points???

KJ