Hey there,

Here's an interesting hand I played last week that might help answer your question. I'll try to include what I was thinking during this hand regarding pot odds and odds I'd win.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed)

UTG+1 ($22.90)
MP1 ($54.75)
MP2 ($41.70)
CO (villain 2) ($8.70)
Button ($19.25)
Hero ($48)
BB (villain 1) ($29.40)
UTG ($17.05)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9d, 8c.
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 folds, CO (villain 2) calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, Hero completes, BB (villain 1) checks.

Flop: ($3) 7s, 8h, 9s (6 players)
Hero checks, villain 1 bets $2, UTG folds, MP1 folds, villain 2 calls $2, Button folds, Hero calls $2.

I decided to check flop because it was so coordinated, and there were a lot of people in the pot, I was of course worried someone flopped a straight. Course I can't muck to a .66xpot bet on flop. I figured I'd know where I stand on the turn bet this guy made... it's 3 handed and if he doesn't have the nuts, it's quite likely that the villain 2 or myself would, and therefore he would slow down a little.

Turn: ($9) 2h (3 players)
Hero checks, villain 1 bets $4, villain 2 calls $4, Hero folds.

So I folded... Here's why. The pot was offering me 17-4 odds, or 4.25:1 pot odds, which is pretty good in NL. But I was very confident that my hand was not best, and I'd need help on the river to win this hand. Giving me at best 4 outs (2 8s and 2 9s). What're the odds I'd hit them? something like 8.5 or 8.7 percent, or 10:1 (give or take).

The pot is offering 4.25:1 odds but the chances I win is approx 10:1 (assuming I am behind). Pretty obvious fold right? Well there's a little more you gotta consider before folding. Implied odds.

Vilain 1 has 22.90 bucks left after his turn bet, and villain 2 has 2.20 which totals 25.1 dollars. So, the best case scenerio is I hit 1 of my 4 outs, and get them both all in. Lets see what the pot odds will be when I hit? Pot is 17 + implied odds of 25.1= 42.1.

Which as you can tell makes this call sound since 42.1:4 is better than 10:1.

However, I felt that it would be really difficult to get villain 1 all in if the board paired (assuming he had a straight, and I did). I figured if I bet out he'll just call or fold (depending on size); and if I check with the idea of a check-raise, I was worried he'd check behind or he'd bet a small amount, and then fold to my big reraise. So I thought at best I could win, say, 15 extra bucks on the river. Which would only give me like 32:4 odds which is no good.

There were a couple other things I thought about. Like even if I was ahead, I'd have to dodge 100 scare cards. For example the few hands I'm ahead that I thought he'd play like this is possibly flush draw, but more likely a pair with OESD (like T9 sooted or something).

River: ($17) 9c (2 players)
villain 1 bets $3, villain 2 calls $2.20 (All-In).

Final Pot: $22.20
Main Pot: $21.40, between villain 2 and villain 1. > Pot won by villain 1 ($21.40).
Pot 2: $0.80, returned to villain 1.

Results below:
villain 1 has Jd Tc (straight, jack high).
villain 2 has As 9h (three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: villain 1 wins $22.20.

Good players factor in other things, but I think my fold here and my thought process was not terrible... Too bad the poker gods laugh in my face by pairing the board.

You might've noticed that Villain 2 had one of my outs, this was something I was also considering during the turn (although I spent most of my time thinking about how much I could win if I hit).

Anywho, don't worry about pot odds and such so much at the beginning, just try to not do hugely bad moves. Oh and there's no such thing as 'too tight' . Eventually it becomes easier and easier as you get more hands under your belt...

Cheers,

Mike

PS. If the stacks were much deeper, especially Villain 2's, then calling the turn would make more sense.

Hey there,

Just saw that you play primarily s/gs. Stack protection is also something you gotta consider. Like even if you have odds in some instances, it might be best to not call. But I don't play s/gs... I like ring cause you can always reload and bust them up .

Cheers,

Mike

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(just kidding man, good pick up)