easy way to figure pot odds

**scottieboy** · 01-12-2006

please go over this and tell me if this method would have a close enough accuracy to use with confidence...

this is after the flop..

To calculate your percentage of hitting an out on the next card, you take the # of outs times 2, then add 1. say you have 8 outs, you have roughly a 17% chance of hitting on the turn.

Once you figure out your chance of hitting a draw, you multiply it by the pot plus the bet to see what the maximum bet is that you can call.

For example, if the bet is $10 and the pot is $90, the bet plus the pot is $100.

Now let's say you have 6 outs (6 cards will help you). This means you have about a 13% chance of hitting. If the pot is $90 and you must call $10, you should call because you can call as long as you have at least a 10% chance to hit (10/100, the total pot is 90+10). However, if the bet to you was $20, you should fold, because that would require a 18.2% chance of hitting (20/110).

**scottieboy** · 01-12-2006

and how would I alter this equation for use after the turn comes.?

**Beavis68** · 01-12-2006

this is how to figure out how to hit in the next card, doesn't matter if it is the flop or the turn.

**The Real DeCoy** · 01-12-2006

A general rule of thumb is:

Hitting by the river after the flop: 4x #outs
Hitting on next card or river card after turn seen: 2x #outs

OESD: 8 outs x 4=32% Actual 8/47= .1702 8/46= .1739 (.1702+.1739= .3441)

This isnt an exact number, but how many times is a 2-3% error going to change your decision?

Also if you're making a decision, lets say its the river in your example:

6 outer 46/6= approx 8 Odds of hitting is 8-1 or 7 to 1 Your $10 into $90 is fine. On a $20 bet you need the pot to be $140.

Calculating your odds is the same thing as calculating your percent, its just expressed differently. And since you dont want to waste time doing math going from percent of the pot to the odds of your bet you're usually better off just doing the math for odds.

In NL you may want to chase the turn. A fair situation is to look for 4 or 5 to one pot odds if you're on an OESD or 4 flush. Otherwise, why bother unless your hands have other features.

I find that people tie themselves down in this game trying to do too much math. Keep it simple and then use your reads when its boarderline. If your simple math is very close to the complex math then stick with the simple. This way you spend your time reading opponents rather than ignoring the screen or the live table and not getting the reads you need. Plus, if you do hard math in your head live you are going to give off tells. Anyone thinking hard always shows something.

**Phytopath** · 01-12-2006

Using the rule of 4 is where MOST people make their mistakes in calling or not, it really only works in NL games or PL games where someone is all in on the flop. Then you can use the 4% method.

Typically you should use the 2% play since those are the odds coming on the next street, as Beavis has said. This is the only one you should use in limit games.

**The Real DeCoy** · 01-12-2006

^^But in limit you're basing everything on pot/implied odds vs. your odds of making the hand. Do you agree that it makes little sense to bother doing "percent" math when it just complicates things? You have a a 10sb pot and its costing you 1sb to call. 10 to 1 pot odds. A 4 outter or better makes sense to call. no need to do percent math.

If anything the 2x rule is far more important in NL or PL because after the turn card your opponent can totally change the math with his bet. You need to know the odds of hitting on the turn card specifically. If hes intentionally giving you odds hes betting you call and dont hit. Chances are he swats your odds away for the river card.

**Phytopath** · 01-12-2006

Originally Posted by The Real DeCoy

^^But in limit you're basing everything on pot/implied odds vs. your odds of making the hand. Do you agree that it makes little sense to bother doing "percent" math when it just complicates things? You have a a 10sb pot and its costing you 1sb to call. 10 to 1 pot odds. A 4 outter or better makes sense to call. no need to do percent math.

If anything the 2x rule is far more important in NL or PL because after the turn card your opponent can totally change the math with his bet. You need to know the odds of hitting on the turn card specifically. If hes intentionally giving you odds hes betting you call and dont hit. Chances are he swats your odds away for the river card.

I said it is important in NL/PL "when someone is all in on the flop", othewise yes always use the 2% rule.

You also get reverse implied odds aswell and the bets double on the turn, so you may have 10-1 on the flop and figure it's okay to chase that gutshot for 1 small bet, however if you miss on the turn you'll probably be getting only 7-1 and the pot odds dictate you fold. Thats why I suggested when playing limit just throw away the 4% rule, it just confuses people. It is not useful for pot odds, but rather for determining pot equity, which is another thread.

When I started playing I did the % stuff, but with some experience I realised it isn't always necessary and you commit most of the outers to memory. I need 9-1 to call a 5 outer, 8-1 for a 6 outer etc...etc... When you get big draws on the flop most people raise with them since their equity is high, a gut shot and a flush draw etc, and you don't need to really know the odds to do that.

**The Real DeCoy** · 01-12-2006

^^True. I'm jamming everytime when I have the nut or second nut draw on the flop. Most people wuss and wont reraise you so if you hit you take down the nice pot and you also get a shot at a free card if you miss the turn and are in late position.

**mxp2004** · 01-12-2006

I really think that the easiest way to deal with pot odds is to memorize an outs chart. The problem that I have with the shorthand method that you describe is that it results in a percentage, which you then have to convert to odds. Maybe some people are able to quickly convert a 17% chance of hitting their hand on the next card to 5.88:1 odds, but I can't do that kind of math in my head at the table.

It's not that hard to memorize some basic odds/outs relationships. For example, I keep in my head that 6 outs = 7:1 odds to make a hand on the next card. Very generally, you can subtract 1 from the odds against for each additional out. For example, 7 outs = 6:1; 8 outs = 5:1; 9 outs = 4:1, etc.

If I'm in a NL game and someone is all in on the flop, then I can cut the odds in half as a general indication my pot odds. For example, if I have a pocket pair and I need to make a set to win, my odds are roughly 22:1 with one card to come and roughly 11:1 with two cards.

I want to emphasize that this method is just a rough approximation of odds if you can only remember 1 fact, i.e., that 6 outs = 7:1. To get a more accurate outs/odds numbers, you need to memorize the chart, and as I said, that is really not that hard to do.

Here's a link to a outs/odds chart: http://www.digital-poker.com/odds/index.php

**Diggler** · 01-12-2006

So after all the stuff, I'm sure you've read, Scottie, I think you'll prolly find your method of calculating easiest, simply b/c you already have applied it - and ti makes basic sense, not perfect, but good enough to learn with

Other than that memorize an odds chart, for myself, I simply apply everything to 9 outs or so such as flush or 8 outs to an OESD and calculate down or up from there. It works for me, but it may not work for you!

Gluck!

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