I have done searches and have found many references to variance but nothing which covers it in depth. If I've missed the thread in question (I'm sure one must already exist) then please point me in the right direction :-)

I've been playing a about a year and experience some bad variance in that time, Although I'm sure no worst than anyone else. Its all part of playing alot of poker and I'm prepared to live with it (no other choice lol). The thing I cannot get my head around at all is why does variance seem to hit me in week long chunks. It seems almost to defy the law of averages. Is there some sort of rule of thumb for this? i.e. you should be up after 1000 hands variance or not? how can you pocket aces win 10 times then lose 10 times, some randomness of course should be expected but I seem to find I have periods where I just cannot win no matter how well I play, and then periods of equal length of time where I simply cannot lose. I did go though the really fishy period of blaming external factors for my bad runs lol, but I've seen the light.

I have a couple of theories of my own 1) you begin to play differently when you hit a bad spell, either being too cautious or bluffing too much and this affects your bb/100. 2) its simply a phscology issue, you only remember the really bad runs, not the consistant few weeks were you lost and little made it back, won some more, lost a little amde it back etc.. possibly even a combination of the two.

If anyone has any other thoughts on this issue I'd be interested to hear them.


Keefter

Its both. Losses get into your head which affects your game. When you win you expect to win so you don't classify it as a hot streak. When you go on a slide you always remember it and it seems like forever till it snaps. Basic human experience.

The thing about probability is that it must pan out (in theory) only in the long run. How long is the long run? We don't know, but to give you an idea, Keynes said "in the long run we are all dead." Aces losing 10 times in a row doesn't even show up on the radar.

In terms of a winning player, 1000 hands probably isn't enough to evaluate with any statistical significance. Play 10,000 hands and then take a look.

Your variance is your standard deviation squared. If you're asking how many hands to have a rough idea of your EV, try 10k. 50k should give you a much better idea.

where can I measure my variance? Does poker tracker do it?


thanks,
Marcel

PT measures SD, not variance.....

I haven't found a usefull aplication for Variance it self yet (please correct me!), other than saying stuff like 'Thats a high variance play' or 'that table will raise or variance.'

Originally Posted by bonchkid

If you're asking how many hands to have a rough idea of your EV, try 10k. 50k should give you a much better idea.

No I'm not. What I',m asking is how is that terrible luck comes in massive chunks? Why is it you get rivered every hand you play for a week? surely you should get rivered evenly?

Ha, thats poker... it has to go in 'streaks' thats jsut the natural variance of life.... We just had a very ugly thread on this, but another (IF IT STAYS NICE) won't hurt. You are never Owed, or due, or anything like that. You could play perfect poker for your entire life and never win a hand, thats just the way randomness works. Same reason the fish can go on huge heaters.

I think it's more perception than anything. If you have a couple of suckouts here or there, or a couple of bad sessions in a week, you are able to shake it off and move on. It's not until you have a pronged down stretch that you really notice it and think about it, so it SEEMS they always come in long stretches.

Originally Posted by Marm

Ha, thats poker... it has to go in 'streaks' thats jsut the natural variance of life.... We just had a very ugly thread on this, but another (IF IT STAYS NICE) won't hurt. You are never Owed, or due, or anything like that. You could play perfect poker for your entire life and never win a hand, thats just the way randomness works. Same reason the fish can go on huge heaters.

I would think that by playing perfect poker eventually someone would fold to your all-in.