Member Login

Welcome to PokerForums.org

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 26

Thread: Variance

  1. 01-11-2006 #1
    Keefter
    Keefter is offline
    Chaser
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    180

    Default Variance

    I have done searches and have found many references to variance but nothing which covers it in depth. If I've missed the thread in question (I'm sure one must already exist) then please point me in the right direction :-)

    I've been playing a about a year and experience some bad variance in that time, Although I'm sure no worst than anyone else. Its all part of playing alot of poker and I'm prepared to live with it (no other choice lol). The thing I cannot get my head around at all is why does variance seem to hit me in week long chunks. It seems almost to defy the law of averages. Is there some sort of rule of thumb for this? i.e. you should be up after 1000 hands variance or not? how can you pocket aces win 10 times then lose 10 times, some randomness of course should be expected but I seem to find I have periods where I just cannot win no matter how well I play, and then periods of equal length of time where I simply cannot lose. I did go though the really fishy period of blaming external factors for my bad runs lol, but I've seen the light.

    I have a couple of theories of my own 1) you begin to play differently when you hit a bad spell, either being too cautious or bluffing too much and this affects your bb/100. 2) its simply a phscology issue, you only remember the really bad runs, not the consistant few weeks were you lost and little made it back, won some more, lost a little amde it back etc.. possibly even a combination of the two.

    If anyone has any other thoughts on this issue I'd be interested to hear them.


    Keefter
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 01-11-2006 #2
    The Real DeCoy
    The Real DeCoy is offline
    Poker Hustler The Real DeCoy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    NYC
    Posts
    1,010

    Default

    Its both. Losses get into your head which affects your game. When you win you expect to win so you don't classify it as a hot streak. When you go on a slide you always remember it and it seems like forever till it snaps. Basic human experience.
    Trons: "...be a winning person first."
    RECENT SUCCESS: December
    4th place $20+2 Stars MTT $1740, 3rd place $15+1.50 Stars MTT $1300
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 01-11-2006 #3
    Method
    Method is offline
    Fish
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Norman, OK
    Posts
    90

    Default

    The thing about probability is that it must pan out (in theory) only in the long run. How long is the long run? We don't know, but to give you an idea, Keynes said "in the long run we are all dead." Aces losing 10 times in a row doesn't even show up on the radar.

    In terms of a winning player, 1000 hands probably isn't enough to evaluate with any statistical significance. Play 10,000 hands and then take a look.
    Last edited by Method; 01-11-2006 at 07:34 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 01-11-2006 #4
    bonchkid
    bonchkid is offline
    change my title babo bonchkid's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Michigan
    Posts
    6,953

    Default

    Your variance is your standard deviation squared. If you're asking how many hands to have a rough idea of your EV, try 10k. 50k should give you a much better idea.
    “There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 01-11-2006 #5
    marz21
    marz21 is offline
    Fish Food
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    1

    Default variance

    where can I measure my variance? Does poker tracker do it?


    thanks,
    Marcel
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 01-11-2006 #6
    Marm
    Marm is offline
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Cleveland
    Posts
    9,757
    Send a message via AIM to Marm Send a message via MSN to Marm

    Default

    PT measures SD, not variance.....

    I haven't found a usefull aplication for Variance it self yet (please correct me!), other than saying stuff like 'Thats a high variance play' or 'that table will raise or variance.'
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

    Luck is a Residue of Design.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 01-11-2006 #7
    Keefter
    Keefter is offline
    Chaser
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    180

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bonchkid
    If you're asking how many hands to have a rough idea of your EV, try 10k. 50k should give you a much better idea.
    No I'm not. What I',m asking is how is that terrible luck comes in massive chunks? Why is it you get rivered every hand you play for a week? surely you should get rivered evenly?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 01-11-2006 #8
    Marm
    Marm is offline
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Cleveland
    Posts
    9,757
    Send a message via AIM to Marm Send a message via MSN to Marm

    Default

    Ha, thats poker... it has to go in 'streaks' thats jsut the natural variance of life.... We just had a very ugly thread on this, but another (IF IT STAYS NICE) won't hurt. You are never Owed, or due, or anything like that. You could play perfect poker for your entire life and never win a hand, thats just the way randomness works. Same reason the fish can go on huge heaters.
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

    Luck is a Residue of Design.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 01-12-2006 #9
    Girevik
    Girevik is offline
    Poker Professional Girevik's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Columbus, OH
    Posts
    1,731

    Default

    I think it's more perception than anything. If you have a couple of suckouts here or there, or a couple of bad sessions in a week, you are able to shake it off and move on. It's not until you have a pronged down stretch that you really notice it and think about it, so it SEEMS they always come in long stretches.
    I'm CDO. It's like OCD, but everying is in order just like it should be.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 01-12-2006 #10
    Barbourman
    Barbourman is offline
    Check Raiser Barbourman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Arkansas
    Posts
    649

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Marm
    Ha, thats poker... it has to go in 'streaks' thats jsut the natural variance of life.... We just had a very ugly thread on this, but another (IF IT STAYS NICE) won't hurt. You are never Owed, or due, or anything like that. You could play perfect poker for your entire life and never win a hand, thats just the way randomness works. Same reason the fish can go on huge heaters.
    I would think that by playing perfect poker eventually someone would fold to your all-in.
    Chuck Norris put the "laughter" in manslaughter..
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Forum Rules