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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > General Poker Strategy > your thoughts on this hand

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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 01-04-2006, 12:26 PM
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change my title babo
 
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Actually BB could have a weird ~92 hand.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 01-04-2006, 12:46 PM
Chaser
 
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k...well preflop..the chance of me folding is 0% with a suited king from the SB when i can limp for $1...but that's just me.

Yes, as I'd mentioned in my initial post the moment I CALLED the $25 on the flop I really regretted not raising. The is a real scare card now because even if I'm good on the turn I think I need to avoid a club and a spade on the river. It's not unrealistic to think the BB may have 45 and raised the flop to buy a free turn.

I end up folding...feeling weak for my call on the flop really wishing I had raised.

The BB calls and shows AA
The button had limped with and the case deuce..the river was a red jack...I folded the winner.
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 01-04-2006, 02:01 PM
Fish Food
 
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Default get used to it =\

I wouldn't beat yourself up over it, this type of situation is where you have to use your read on the player, and if you really don't have a grasp on the players style yet then you either folding, or gambling for information. So all in all you got good information from that hand. Plus this type of thing happens alot, it's poker =\
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 01-04-2006, 02:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bonchkid
River has to be a fold.
turn
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  #15 (permalink)  
Old 01-04-2006, 03:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mookie
k...well preflop..the chance of me folding is 0% with a suited king from the SB when i can limp for $1...but that's just me.
This is a leak in your game, its not profitable enough to do.

Ace with a suited 2-5 isnt so bad, you have the nut flush draw and a straight draw, which if it hits will likely be the nut.


K suited though? thats pretty horrible.

Sorry if thats harsh but its true, you are playing for the second nut flush, and two pair or better, if a king hits you dont know where you are, and if a two hits your playing for the king to hit on the turn/river. which is a three outer.

K-x suited, is -ev, where the x is less than a jack.
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  #16 (permalink)  
Old 01-04-2006, 08:05 PM
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change my title babo
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gryff
K-x suited, is -ev, where the x is less than a jack.
From the SB for half a bet? Gryff, I'm sorry to say, but you aren't allowed to decide what is +/- ev. Why don't you post some numbers to support your claim?
Sure doesn't look that bad to me. My range for the button may be off, but even changing those values doesn't affect your hand that much.

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.7023 % 38.57% 01.14% { 66, ATs-A2s, KJs-K8s, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, AJo-A7o, KJo-KTo, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 30.9779 % 29.85% 01.14% { Ks2s }
Hand 3: 29.3195 % 28.00% 01.33% { random }
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  #17 (permalink)  
Old 01-04-2006, 08:43 PM
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mookie... was the 6 a third spade or a second spade?

If it was the third one I fold... I'd bet a lot bigger that my opponent has a flush there then that he doesn't

If it's the second one then I call/raise, expecting to see an overpair/top pair and either a flush draw, a weak 2, or a boat. If Those are the possibilities, I'll put my stack in on the turn. But if that's the third spade, then I'm folding.
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 01-05-2006, 06:57 AM
Chaser
 
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PJ: The turn was a 2nd spade...making the board with 2 spades and 2 clubs. Part of the reason for my fold was thinknig that even if i was good on the turn, I would need to dodge a spade and a club on the river.

Gryff: I agree w/ bonch. With the BB and the limped dealer and me in the SB for $1 already, there is like 4:1 just to complete the blinds and see a flop and maybe catch a flop. Needless to say if it had been raised i would've folded.


Plus, some of the most profitable flushes I've made have been w/ the king when the ace is on the board... a Qhi or less flush is much more likely to pay you off when the ace is no longer part of the equation. I only pound a K high flush when it is the nuts.
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  #19 (permalink)  
Old 01-05-2006, 04:06 PM
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Then mookie, I would put in my chips. If he has a boat, ce la vie... he'll have that less often then a weaker 2 that is drawing virtually dead.

The flush draws here (probably only one out against you!) have 6 or 7 outs (board pairing or the K of their suit loses for them as well, so they don't have 9) and are only going to win less then 20% of the time. Same odds as AA vs an underpair preflop, and I'll put my money in in that situation every time as well... and here you're getting a solid overlay from the pot (and an extra opponent that may throw his cash in there as well with only a tiny bit of equity!)
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  #20 (permalink)  
Old 01-06-2006, 01:29 PM
Chaser
 
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thanks PJ. I think you're bang on spot with your thoughts.

My mistake though, the 6 was in fact the 6 of clubs putting 2 spades and 2 clubs on board. Part of my fold was telling myself that I would need to avoid a club or a spade on the river to win. Ultimately, I put the puck on having 33 and flopping a boat which obviously was wrong..
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