Calling River always tough

gder03 · #1 (**permalink**) 01-03-2006, 03:02 PM

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Started at 03/Jan/06 18:40:09

gder03 is at seat 4 with $30.45.
stout15 is at seat 5 with $9.15.
Les Vegas is at seat 6 with $18.55.
E-Dub is at seat 7 with $8.15.
graniteman is at seat 8 with $14.30.
The button is at seat 6.

E-Dub posts the small blind of $.10.
graniteman posts the big blind of $.25.

gder03: Qc Kh

Pre-flop:

gder03 raises to $.85. stout15 folds. Les Vegas
folds. E-Dub calls. graniteman folds.

Flop (board: Js 2d 8c):

E-Dub checks. gder03 bets $1.75. E-Dub calls.

Turn (board: Js 2d 8c 4d):

E-Dub checks. gder03 checks.

River (board: Js 2d 8c 4d Kd):

E-Dub goes all-in for $5.55. what should gder03 do?

E-dubs image was: fairly solid. playing shrt 30 hands and hasn't busted so... if that means anything.

It took me about 20seconds to make my decision on the riv.

WotaWaster · #2 (**permalink**) 01-03-2006, 04:22 PM

If you think hes a strong player you should only be beating a bluff.

If the King helps him it must be AK or KJ (for 2 pair).
If it doesn't help him, he doesnt fear it so must already have 2 pair/trips.

Suppose it depends whether you think pot odds justify a call.

Trons · #3 (**permalink**) 01-03-2006, 04:57 PM

I don't know...I think there is a better then even chance he may be bluffing...that seems like a serious over bet and if you've got a tight/solid image at the table, then he knows you'll be able to put him on a good hand and use that to your advantage...

Since you mentioned he was a solid player, I'm guessing he wasn't on a flush draw (not that he didn't luck into the flush mind you)...He may have seen the turn check as weakness and decided the pot was big enough to bluff into...if my math is correct, that's basically a pot sized bet...not sure if the fact that it puts him all in means anything or not (Pot size bet could be for value, all in could be because he didn't have more to over bet the pot)...

AK I think he would have reraised you PF and KJ I think he would have either c/r you on the flop, or pulled a weak lead into you...My big fear would be A8d or A2d...

WotaWaster · #4 (**permalink**) 01-03-2006, 05:03 PM

Of course I missed the flush! In which case bluff is more likely. Think I fold.

Aces-o-8s · #5 (**permalink**) 01-03-2006, 10:08 PM

The check-thru on the turn sure makes calling the river a lot more difficult. Had you bet even 1/3 to 1/2 the pot you could have won it right there or at least know he had enough to stay in the pot with you. Tuf call, but you have top pair and if he didn't bet out what would you have bet?. I guess you're about 40% or better to win and you're getting almost 2:1 to call - so did you?

gder03 · #6 (**permalink**) 01-03-2006, 11:04 PM

Result:

I call. He shows Ah7h and I win.

HIs call on the flop really threw me off. I'm usually gunna check that turn with intention to fold in this situation.

gder03 · #7 (**permalink**) 01-04-2006, 12:49 AM

this was eaven tougher.
no read.

i got TT

3 handed. from button I raise to .85
bb calls

Flop: 4s Th Qs
gayman checks gder bets $1.25, gayman calls

Turn: 4s Th Qs Ac

gay man cheks gder bets about $3.75, gayman calls

River: 4s Th Qs Ac 8h

gayman goes all in for $80

3 hands beat me. figure he trying to muscle me out.
Showdown:
gder set of TTT
gayman has KJ strait.

thats about as slow as i will play a set on a average flop like that.

gder03 · #8 (**permalink**) 01-04-2006, 12:50 AM

if it was 80 i would shoot myself. I believe it was in 17-20$ range. the bet on the river.

Keefter · #9 (**permalink**) 01-04-2006, 04:03 AM

I think I'd fold. I don't think he's bluffing, I think he has a hand, probably not the flush though, a set? or two pair? Deliberate overbet on the river to make deliberate for 20 seconds,. The flop bet he called was quite hefty doesn't seem right, something is a miss.

Eclipse86 · #10 (**permalink**) 01-05-2006, 01:32 AM

havent looked at the results yet.. but right off the bat, for him to be betting out so aggressively on the river.. RIGHT after he check-called you on the flop.. im guessing hes got either a set of 2's 8's or Jack's.. or he hit the nut flush playing AQ or AK of diamonds... so im laying this down.

i figure he would only check-call you on the flop like that then bet out like that on the river holding a set or AQ, AK suited of diamonds .. anything else he would have check-raised with - if this guy has AJ, KJ, QQ, KK, or AA.. he would have definately check-raised you on the flop, instead of check-calling.. although AA KK and QQ is unlikely because he did not re-raise you preflop (but then again it is a short handed game, so he might be trying to slowplay, since he thinks he can get the hand heads up with you)...

in any case, im not calling this river bet.. because the only hand that u TRULY beat here is AJ.. KJ has u beat and anything else he could have called a preflop raise with and played the way he did on the flop/turn and river has u beat - i doubt both u guys have KQ... and even then, i highly doubt AJ would have made this play on the river with 1 over card and 3 to the flush... so im guessing ur pretty much screwed here if u call this bet?