do u guys think that i may have over played the top set here a little too aggressively on the turn?

would it have been better to just call his turn bet, then value bet the river?
or was this a good play because there was a possible straight draw and flush by the turn?



Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.50 BB (10 handed) converter

MP3 ($77.35)
CO ($25.75)
Button ($68.70)
SB ($16.60)
Hero ($62.80)
UTG ($29.05)
UTG+1 ($50.20)
UTG+2 ($44.25)
MP1 ($8.75)
MP2 ($185.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with , .
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $1.5, MP1 calls $1.50, 5 folds, Hero calls $1.

Flop: ($4.75) , , (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $4, MP1 folds, Hero calls $4.

Turn: ($12.75) (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $10, Hero raises to $25, UTG+2 folds.

Final Pot: $32.75

Results in white below:
No showdown. $1.60 is raked from a pot of $32.75.
Hero wins $31.15.

I would have played it the same I think. I suppose he could of just had overcards, but I wouldnt have wanted to call on the turn just incase he did have the straight or the flush draw.

looks to me like hes got top pair, probabley a-10. A call on the flop and a reraise on the turn told him you had sumthing strong. I woulda reraised 2x his raise on the flop, then if it was checked to me on the turn,i woulda put out a 5 dollar bet, if he raises into me agian on the turn eather he wants to see a free card with his top pair to catch two pair, or has a lower set/two pair. In which in this case i would reraise him again enough to keep it to where if he calls hes pot committed.... Minimum raise here without showing weakness would be about 5$,, so i'd reraise about 8$ total and hoped he called. Why i would do this play is for two reasons.. First most ppl who hit top set slowplay.. Second he may think your playing back at him or trying to represent a stronger hand. Just confuse the fuck outta him with the reraise on the flop. and put in a raise on the turn to pot commit him.
.. and the reraise protects agianst any straight draws too on the flop

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stop worrying so much and just let go.

You're giving him better then 3-1 odds to call here. I dunno, maybe he would have called a smaller bet, or put in more money if you checked the turn... but to fold with those kindof odds he couldn't have had much anyway.

__________________
-You may not know this, but poker is a game of incomplete information.

Seems like he's bluffing with AK or AQ - maybe something like 99. I like the call in position, it makes it seem like you're on a draw. I'd probably have smooth called the turn, but I also like the raise as the board is becoming somewhat scary. I'd let him try to bluff me out one more time on the river (or hope he pairs an A K or Q on the river), then I'd min raise.

In the long run, this is why you make so much more on these hands in position than OOP.

yea jason back in tha hous.

I chek raise the turn even harder. He bets 10 and I raise to all in. Thas a bad turn, not a turn you can get cute with.

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Wouldnt the 10 dollar raise into the $32.75 pot mean he has to have better than 23% chance to hit his outs, or he has to have 11 outs? Whats the 3-1 odds?

Unless my math is wrong its:
47.75:15 Or about 3.2:1

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“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

It's 15 to call 47.50. 3.18 -1 or so.

Indeed, from a theory of poker standpoint where your opponent knows he has the worst hand. In that case, he needs to have enough outs to improve to best 24% of the time.

However, if you're him, and he has a solid hand, there is a good chance he is allready ahead. If you assume that the rest of the money goes into the pot,
he has to call 28.75 to win 61.25. He needs to win this 32% of the time.

Say he has AK... here he has 6 partial outs to improve to TPTK and some percent chance it's best allready. So he has to fold this with only a 7% chance of improving... unless the chance his opponent is bluffing (with a worse hand) is greater then 25%. (we know he's drawing dead here, of course)

If he has something like AA he probably has to call here. We know he will only very rarely win here... but the range of hands his opponent could have compares very favorably to his needed 32% win rate. KK it goes down (since AA beats him now and KK only ties), and QQ it gets worse. Any big pair though is tough to fold when you're getting better then 2-1 to win and you know the board is all undercards! It all depends on the range of hands you put your opponent on.

In the hand in question... if your opponent thinks (wrongly) that his pair might be good if he DOES improve, then even a min raise (10 to call, 42.50 in the pot) doesn't improve his odds enough even if he counts all 6 as full outs. So decreasing the size of your raise shouldn't have your opponent calling if he doesn't have a pair... and pushing him in should still have him calling with a lot of overpairs, so you definantly didn't play too fast. He just didn't have a good enough hand to call down with.

__________________
-You may not know this, but poker is a game of incomplete information.

ooops, i thought the raise was 10