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  1. #1
    Poker Expert Antneye's Avatar
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    Default Pot Odds or survival in a tourney?

    We spend a lot of time discussing the proper move based on your pot odds. We also spend a lot of time discussing the survival aspects of a tourney or SNG.

    In a cash game every decision is basically a pot odds decision. But in a tourney it is more complex. My question is very simple. If you are being given the proper pot odds to make a call, but it will push you all in do you make the call?

    Example:

    You are in a typical Poker Stars SNG.
    You have 800 in chips left after playing the hand through to the turn. (basically you are struggling).

    There is 2700 in the pot and your opponent bets 800 into you. you have 4 to the nut flush. Lets say you played AK suited didn't pair and worked your way into this position (all hypothetical, it was a big family pot to get the #'s here).

    You have the proper pot odds to peel one off and try to hit the flush. You hit and you have a great stack, you lose and you are gone. Knowing that you will be eliminated from 37 tourneys and have a nice stack in 9 tourneys do you make the call?

    Also, how does the fact that winning the 9 times does not guarantee you will win the tourney affect your decision?

  2. #2
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
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    Default

    POt odds are key in every game. But odds are not always just bet vs pot. This topic has been beaten to death......
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

    Luck is a Residue of Design.

  3. #3
    Poker Expert Antneye's Avatar
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    Default

    It may have been beaten to death, but I constantly find myself battling with myself over the correct odds play vs the survival aspect.

    Do you call or fold Marm?

  4. #4
    Poker Hustler Jason75's Avatar
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    Default

    How many players are left? What are the blinds?

    I'm very good at stealing blinds (player profiling is the key), even with a smallish stack. So I likely fold here if I think I could steal 2-3 blinds the next orbit (basically tight players on my left).

    If I'm stuck with a bunch of loose players on my left, I'm thinking "where is my money coming from if I fold here?". If the answer is "picking up a hand and skewering the loose players on my left" and I think I can survive long enough to do it (and have enough chips to make it count), then I'll fold. If the answer is: I'm not really sure (blinds are big), then I'd probably call.

    Also depends on my read of the other player. If I think his bet means weakness, then maybe my AK-high is good which obviously increases my chances of winning the hand.

    But I think I have to be in a really bad situation to call off my whole stack on a draw with one card to come if I think my opponent is ahead (I would likely have gone all in with a flush+overcard draw on the flop).

  5. #5
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    I am really not clear as to what is going on here, you have two overs and a flush draw.

    I play hands selectively, and play the hands I do see flops with for profit, so if the money is still a ways off, chip ev is about my only consideration.

  6. #6
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    Default

    Read Harrington on Holdem.

  7. #7
    Poker Hustler Jason75's Avatar
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    Default

    Ok, after sitting on the toilet thinking some more about this one, I wanted to offer this:

    I think there's something about this thinking that I think is a fundamental weakness. IMO, in order to be successful at the SNG's, you must think of yourself as the hunter and the other players as your prey. The key at the lower blinds is trap, trap, and trap again. Once you figure out who the other hunters are (I label them "ringers"), avoid them at all costs unless you've got a moster.

    Don't get yourself into situations with lower blinds holding AK where you missed the flop but continue anyway when you think you're behind (i'm assuming we picked up the flush draw on the turn). You laid a trap, and it didn't go off, you're behind, so what's your advantage? Go away and set a new trap on another hand.

    But I think it's the mentality that needs work here. Maybe this is too much information, but when I've got my prey in my sights, I literally feel a kind of poker bloodlust, and I'm ready to tear their heart out with my bare hands and crush it while screaming a blood curdling scream.

    If I don't feel that early on, I'm folding.

  8. #8
    Poker Expert Antneye's Avatar
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    Default

    OK. I guess the example is messing up what I wanted to discuss. As I was typing the example I was saying..How the Hell did the player get in this spot???? I wouldn't have played a hand this way to be in this spot.

    I was trying to seize a hypothetical where you have the odds to draw out but risk your life......a better example should have been presented.

    I have read HOH multiple times, and play very similar to what Jason described. I am actually very seldom drawing at a hand, and when I am it is usually pretty cheap for me to be drawing.

    I just feel its an interesting question.

    Do you draw with the right odds if missing eliminates you.

  9. #9
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    Actually, in SnGs and MTTs, I don't just want break even pot odds (I really don't want that is cash games either) - I want overlay from the pot - be it immediate or implied.

    In SnGs in particular, if I am in a pot early, I am probaly in it for a raise and with a hand that has multibple draws.

    At least one overcard.

    If I have a crap hand like 86s, and the flop is A 9 7 of my suit. I will call an all-in. Even if the pot is relatively dry.

    I always put a premium on winning, not survival.
    Last edited by Beavis68; 12-16-2005 at 01:05 PM.

  10. #10
    (Formerly Steve-O) Steve Ruddock's Avatar
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    i haven't read any responses but let me give this a go.

    In a sit and go (with 10 people) you need to double your stack a little more than 3 times to amass all the chips. 1,000 to 2,000. 2,000 to 4,000. 4,000 to 8,000. and then another 2,000 chips.

    This assumes all players are of equal level.

    So if you are a 3 to 2 favorite each time you have .6 x .6 x .6 chance of doing this or about 21% chance to do it. If you are a coin flip you would have only a 12.5% chance of doing it.

    So I would want to be at least a 3 to 2 favorite before risking my entire stack. Since, if I got my money in as a 3 to 2 fav I will win about 20% of the sit and go tourneys I play.

    $10 SnG pays 50, 30, 20. I win 2 out of ten I'm breaking even so any second or 3rds are gravy. And this is against 9 other players as good as me which I don't think will ever be the case in a $10 SnG.
    Read my musings on poker and life at Online Poker Examiner, Poker Examiner, PokerNewsBoy.com, and My Poker Blog

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