can someone help me with a question i have come up with whilst thinking about this discussion:

say i raise to 500 and he calls (but he would have called all-in),

the only overcards available are A and K, but i do not know which he has if either. but he only gets to see 3/5 cards.

i have an opportunity to put my money in figuring i am ahead on all flops J high and lower.

however if he will call a 500 raise and an all-in raise am i not giving him a chance to see 5/5 cards to hit when i raise all-in but 3/5 cards when i bet 500

i hope someone understands this post (i am having a little trouble articulating my thoughts) and can help me with the maths on this scenario.

I haven't played at a $5 SNG in years and one of my leaks is not playing my best when I'm playing with uninteresting money.

What level do you usually play at and what site. Because if we are going to compare results we should probably play at the same site and level. Maybe we should just play and few SNG's at the same table across from each other and see who places higher. What do you care to wager? Bragging rights or something else?

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Bobby, I understand your point completely which is why I dont like the all in.

I just reverse your logic. By waiting until the flop to push here you get to see 3 cards. If none of the overs appear (I am mostly fearing the ace) you give yourself an escape hatch.

If he is calling you with a lower pair he is probably not putting any more money in the pot if an overcard hits, so you will get to check it down to river and still win. If he is playing AK hes betting it and you can get away (sometimes...I still find it hard to laydown if the overcard is only a K)

If all lower cards hit you are shoving.

I just like the wait approach better. There was a great article in 2+2 recently which analyzed the value of waiting for the flop to push vs pf, and I am pretty sure they concluded it was more profitable to wait.

The all in nullifies your positional advantage because the hand is guaranteed to play to the end and let him see all 5 cards. I think that's an aspect that hasnt been addressed here. Would we be more prone to push pre-flop if we are out of position relative to the opponent. I probably would. If I have position I want to play it slower and let my positional advantage play out.

In other words if I am in SB and someone makes a nice raise from MP or EP I am probably pushing. If I am on button and the raise came from EP or MP I am probably re-raising, but not necessarily pushing...I have position.....I want to use it.

Overcards are about a coinflip to pairs when all five board cards are drawn. Overpairs are about a 2 to 1 dog if you were only to see the flop. This is why it has been considered good strategy to push in hands like AK preflop to not only gain the folding equity but to automatically see all five cards and not get pushed off a hand that misses you on the flop but catches you on the turn a river.

The opposite thought process holds somewhat true with pairs.....Generally, you still want to bet enough to get heads up, preferably in position, but you want to allow yourself exit strategies on ugly flops.

Does that answer your question?

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How do you account for the times when an A or a K hits and he bluffs you out of the pot. Or he flops a set or two pair and you get all your money in drawing dead? Or you fold when you would have hit a straight/flush/set. by the river.

You may also only get 500 chips from a guy with 22 or AQ when you could have had his whole stack.

Also, if you blow off 500 chips here, what does that do to your chances of winning?

Antneye,

can you post a link to the 2+2 article please?

you are also assuming he will only call the raise and no push all-in himself.

and if you only call, you may allow others in the pot.

I just found it. Its a Sklansky article, and ironically he is talking about QQ PF. Of course he is talking about cash games.


http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/i...ansky1005.html

thank you,

i also want to know how it applies to what may happen later on in the hand e.g. how to factor in a bluf when the flop is Axx and he takes the pot with Kx etc

I just did the simple math. Give:

A - you raise to 500 and he only calls
B - no other players in the pot
C - Your opponent has only AK
D - He folds if he doesnt hit at least one A or K


I didnt count flushes, straights, or straight/flush draws or you hitting a set when he he hits a pair.

the EV = 190 for raising to 500 and 180 for pushing.

Now, if you count all the other hands that might call all in but fold on the flop you have dominated, I think the push is +EV.