MTT NLHE Tourny, 100/200, you have about 6000. UTG (kinda loose) makes it 600 to go, you have 99, you call, 2 other callers.

Flop is 244. UTG checks, you bet 1200. Button calls. (Button is fairly tight player who plays bigger hands aggressively, and only good aces)

Turn is 5. You bet out 2000, he pushes all-in, you have him covered, but barely.

pop Quiz, what do you do?

If you have to wonder after a ragged river, I'd say the flop bet was very good and aggressive, but the turn bet is unneccessary because just every hand beats you that is in the range that you put him on. I think the turn's a good spot to back off, but again, I do like the consistent aggression. At times, you can be a little passive-aggressive.

I say this because he has postion on his side and will put you in the tank on the river, no matter what it is.

pot- 13,500
to call- 2500
odds- 5.4-1
chances that your opponent has A-4 or a str8 or draw- pretty dam good
folding this hand instead of making an EV- play- priceless

getting trapped because you're betting into a family pot out of position with no improvement regardless of the board and the numbers in a satellite: EV-

There are many times that you can't just see the amount that's in the pot relative to how much it is to call. You have to answer the questions:

1.) Who put it get there?

2.) How did they put it there?

and

3.) Why did they put it there?

Sklansky forgot to put those questions in his book.

let me do a little math to prove my point:

YOUR ODDS ARE 5.4 TO 1

Case 1: Straight
OUTS: 2 9's, 2 4's (Boat)
ODDS : about 6.75 to 1
SURVEY SAYS: FOLD

Case 2: Set
OUTS: 2 9's (Boat)
ODDS: about 13.5 to 1
SURVEY SAYS: FOLD

Case 3: Bluff / Draw
OUTS: Almost any card in the deck
ODDS: better than 5.4 to 1
SURVEY SAYS: CALL

Now, you are playing against a tight player, so out of 10 times, he has:
Straight: 4
Trips: 4
Bluff/Draw: 2

if you call, you deserve to be shot in the face

Well, shoot me then.

He was a tight player, rarely playing small connectors, nor small pairs (<=5)to a raise. And I would have assumed he would have raised a bigger pair preflop. A3 didnt fit his MO either. So I put him on Overcards, or a smaller pair. I didnt think there was anyway he had a 4, A4 or 45/34 didnt make sense.

So I called.

My read was dead on.

He had 88.

I won.

The guy was on the button, Beav. That's why I said that backing off on the turn because he was out of position was the right move.

I was stuck between an Alex and a hard place.

I couldn't back off and let him bluff me off this one when I felt I was probably ahead. But any bet that was a good size was too big. Anything smaller would have been the equivalent of a check. I was definatly out of position, but sometimes I feel that can be an advantage, making them react to you.

I was afraid of TT, but I felt more often than not he would have raised PF or on the flop to gauge where he was really at. I'm pretty sure JJ would havce raised. A3s was the only hand he might have had that really worried me, but the chances of him having exactly A3s were slim enough, since I put the UTG on a 90% chance of an Ace (he was a frequent AAWD player), especially given his flop check/fold.

While not truly pot committed, With the odds being provided and with the chances I felt I was ahead, It made my hand worth a call.

Looking back at my play, I was almost representing big suited connectors, or maybe 99 TT. My bets almsot looked like bluffs with such a board and my position. Given I figured him smart enough to think along these lines, I figured he thought i was bluffing, making him think his medium pair or big overcards were ahead, making me even more sure I was ahead.