Originally Posted by Beavis68

Another great quote.

If he's (Allan) the favorite against that weighted distribution (of hands you would move all-in with) then he is the favorite, period. It makes no difference what you turned out to be holding. That information did not exist.

I don't know what you're saying about this, but its correct.

Game
Each player is dealt a real number 1-10 Highest number wins.

You opponent can bet 1, you can call or fold. If your opponent truthfully will bet 5-10 you can always call with an 8 because you are the favorite against a random selection of hands 5-10.

Now that I re-read that, Is my thinking flawed? A definate possibly. Do I get my point across? An overwhelming maybe.

Well, you would have to assume the player would play 6-10, not 5-10. With a 5, he only beats 4 hands, with 6 a six, he has a greater chance of winning than losing. Thus being said, if you have an 8, and you figure the player will only play 6-10, you actually have a 45% to win. He either holds 6-7, or 9-10. That sounds right, I think. At least I hope.

After reading Marm's post, I feel like an idiot for forgetting ties. With ties and split pots, you would win 45% of the time, lose 45% of the time, and tie 10% of the time.

What whould you play if ties were not a split pot, but only the bettor wins, not the caller? Now your stuck with 9-10, but since your opponent knows this or will soon know this, he too will only play 9-10, since there is no ante. This turns into a positional game where early has a definate advantage, mid is very weak and last is a little stronger than mid. Exatcly why raising is such a very important part of the game. And this is leading to a long downward spiral of a simple example posted by bonch.

Originally Posted by Announced Tilt

Well, you would have to assume the player would play 6-10, not 5-10. With a 5, he only beats 4 hands, with 6 a six, he has a greater chance of winning than losing. Thus being said, if you have an 8, and you figure the player will only play 6-10, you actually have a 45% to win. He either holds 6-7, or 9-10. That sounds right, I think. At least I hope.

After reading Marm's post, I feel like an idiot for forgetting ties. With ties and split pots, you would win 45% of the time, lose 45% of the time, and tie 10% of the time.

The number you pick has nothing to do with it, If he says he plays 5-10, then he plays any number 5 through 10

Originally Posted by Marm

What whould you play if ties were not a split pot, but only the bettor wins, not the caller? Now your stuck with 9-10, but since your opponent knows this or will soon know this, he too will only play 9-10, since there is no ante. This turns into a positional game where early has a definate advantage, mid is very weak and last is a little stronger than mid. Exatcly why raising is such a very important part of the game. And this is leading to a long downward spiral of a simple example posted by bonch.

That "downward spiral" is called Game Theory

Well, you never really said anything about the player telling his opponent what he will play. However, playing anything under a 6 is a dumb move. The gap concept, to my knowledge, involves being a favorite. Playing the 5 would not put him as a favorite. If he does say he will play 5-10, that is just stupid. Sorry if I misunderstood.

Once again, another edit. I re-read bonch's post about being untruthful. In your mind you are thinking that he will play 6-10 "truthfully," which in my mind, means without bluffing. This leads to the spiral, and into poker, with players being "truthful." And in the case with Allen C, he could have put the player on a blind-steal. Bluff. Which leads us back to our little game, and being a favorite in a hand. If indeed, the player was bluffing, you win the hand with your 8. With Allen C., if he catches the player in a blind-steal, he is a bigger favorite to win. But, with the A in the hand, he still has outs if need be.

But a player that will play 6-10 will play so many times that you can afford to wait for 9 or 10 and bust him. With an 8, you're 50/50 at having the best of it, if he's playing. With a 9, you're 3:1 and of course 10 is the nuts.

You'll get "9" or "10" 20% of the time and 50% of those times, this Fish will give you action and only 10% of those times, he'll have you beat or you split. You'll win nice pots on 9% of the hands you see just by being a rock against this guy heads up.