Lots of outs... any of them good?

**PJ of TheGame** · 12-04-2005

Are the odds there for this call or was I just dizzy?

NO_LIMIT TEXAS_HOLDEM $5+$1 (real money), #1,549,463,409
5+0.5 NL Holdem Multi Table Tournament, 4 Dec 2005 4:31 PM ET
Seat 1: SUKmeIFuCAN ($2,960 in chips)
Seat 2: sprintcar8 ($1,035 in chips)
Seat 3: fittnyllet ($1,235 in chips)
Seat 4: pokermike5 ($1,245 in chips)
Seat 5: Pumaeye ($2,200 in chips)
Seat 6: o1sson ($1,305 in chips)
Seat 7: PJofTheGame ($1,600 in chips)
Seat 8: mpoulis ($520 in chips)
Seat 9: giantclips ($1,330 in chips)
Seat 10: De Iceman ($1,480 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Pumaeye posts blind ($15), o1sson posts blind ($30).

PRE-FLOP
PJofTheGame calls $30, mpoulis calls $30, giantclips folds, De Iceman calls $30, SUKmeIFuCAN calls $30, sprintcar8 folds, fittnyllet calls $30, pokermike5 folds, Pumaeye calls $15, o1sson checks.

FLOP [board cards 5C,AS,8H ]
Pumaeye bets $50, o1sson folds, PJofTheGame calls $50, mpoulis folds, De Iceman folds, SUKmeIFuCAN calls $50, fittnyllet calls $50.

TURN [board cards 5C,AS,8H,6C ]
Pumaeye bets $100, PJofTheGame calls $100, SUKmeIFuCAN folds, fittnyllet bets $1,155 and is all-in, Pumaeye folds, PJofTheGame calls $1,055.

RIVER [board cards 5C,AS,8H,6C,3C ]

SHOWDOWN
fittnyllet shows [ 6S,AC ]
PJofTheGame shows [ 9C,8C ]
PJofTheGame wins $2,820.
SUMMARY
Dealer: pokermike5
Pot: $2,820
SUKmeIFuCAN, loses $80
sprintcar8, loses $0
fittnyllet, loses $1,235
pokermike5, loses $0
Pumaeye, loses $180
o1sson, loses $30
PJofTheGame, bets $1,235, collects $2,820, net $1,585
mpoulis, loses $30
giantclips, loses $0
De Iceman, loses $30

--- Just as a note... it has worked out well... I have 17k chips with 230 out of 511 left. Second place has 12k. Gambling for the chip lead seems to become me.

**traz** · 12-05-2005

well, you're getting like 1.6:1 odds here, but you only have about 11 outs, 15 if you count 2 pair, but I don't think you can count it in that situation. The cards are only giving you about 4:1..thus on strictly numbers, you'll lose more money that you'll win.

However, I probably would have pushed him on the turn anyway in a tournament. I'm not a fan of calling with that hand, but I don't mind being the aggressor.

**Jason75** · 12-05-2005

Don't call this bet on the flop. Raise or fold (preferrably fold). You're just "peeling one off".

On the turn, well now you're stuck. You can't figure 2 pair is any good with that A out there (and the likelihood that at your opponent may hold A-small for a better 2 pair), I'd even discount another 8 as you might be drawing against a straight (somewhat unlikely, but he's getting incredible odds when he calls that weak flop bet, so he could have filled his inside straight draw). So at best you have maybe 13, but more likely only 11 outs. That means you're between 24 and 30% to win, and need a minimum of 2.3:1 odds to call. The pot isn't laying you anywhere near that, so this is a long term money losing call. Of course, you hit your flush and win, so count yourself lucky and try not to do this again.

**Beavis68** · 12-05-2005

I don't for the life of me know how you can say two pair isn't good except for looking at the results, but you are correct, you are not getting anywhere near the odds for this play. So how do you get you are "stuck"?

I don't have any problem "peeling on off" in these types of flops. Although with only 30BBs, you are getting to the point where this is too costly.

**traz** · 12-06-2005

Anytime I see Axxx on the board in an unraised pot, i'm going to assume my 2-pair isn't good, unless I can make top 2...alot of players will play ax, and the chances of someone hitting 2pair higher than my bottom-2 is quite high

**Beavis68** · 12-06-2005

Define "quite high".

**PJ of TheGame** · 12-06-2005

The way I figured it I had 9 flush outs, 3 gutshot outs, 2 outs to trips, and 3 more to 2 pair. As you have pointed out though, you have to discount some of the outs because of the possibility that they're no good...

The pot is offering 1.7 to 1, so I would have to win more then 36% of the time or so. This means I need ~ 15 outs to call with one to come? Around here the clock ran out, I decided to gamble and call. Looking back, I would value my hand at between 10 and 12 outs because none of my draws are sure to win. Thanks for the analysis guys.

**Beavis68** · 12-06-2005

what are you doing limping UTG with 98s? Was the table very passive?

I didn't realize there was quite so much in the pot to give you that close to 2:1, but you still need about 17 outs to make it EV neutral.

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