Playing a cash game .50/$1 Texas Hold 'Em NL.
I am holding AQ in Mid Position and raise to $4 (4BB) Preflop and get 2 callers.
Flop comes down 4s 5h Qs
I then bet out $8 into a $13.50 pot and get raised to $20 by the next to act player, and the 3rd player folds.
My read was this opponent was a good solid player.
I was thinking that there were 3 possibilities:
1. The player also holds AQ
2. The player holds either QQ,KK or AA
3. The player holds AK or maybe an underpair or suited connectors and thinks I am making a continuation bet with a similar hand myself.
With a third player also to act and with my read on this player I felt the 2nd option was most likely. My one question with my play is did my $8 bet look a little weak and perhaps a pot sized bet would have been more likely to prevent possibility 3 above?
Texas Hold'em $1-$1 NL (real money), #1,513,690,487
Table Vineland, 25 Nov 2005 3:07 PM ET
Seat 1: gavin_cn ($92 in chips)
Seat 3: WotaWaster ($119.50 in chips)
Seat 4: charlie0645 ($8.10 in chips)
Seat 5: smackover1 ($30 in chips)
Seat 6: gambler3k ($177.60 in chips)
Seat 7: mfavs99 ($132.90 in chips)
Seat 8: sirgrande ($74.20 in chips)
Seat 9: Raider83X ($49.10 in chips)
Seat 10: vegaspoet ($53 in chips)
vegaspoet posts blind ($0.50), gavin_cn posts blind ($1).
WotaWaster bets $4, charlie0645 folds, smackover1 folds, gambler3k folds, mfavs99 calls $4, sirgrande folds, Raider83X calls $4, vegaspoet folds, gavin_cn folds.
FLOP [board cards 4S,5H,QS ]
WotaWaster bets $8, mfavs99 bets $20, Raider83X folds, WotaWaster folds.
mfavs99 wins $40.50.
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Thread: Too Conservative?
November 25th, 2005 #1
November 25th, 2005 #2
That's a toughie.
For the record I'd put him on KK there without more information about his style of play.
Of course you try and check-raise as a way to get more information and avoid looking like a continuation bet, but you risk giving a free card and although it's not a dangerous board that's a risk you need not take.
I honestly don't know if there was a better way to play this, be interesting to hear what others think.
I'm a big fan of making similar size bets at flops when I have nothing, drawing hands and genuine strength so I could see myself getting in the same situation.
November 25th, 2005 #3Originally Posted by WotaWaster
Flop - Re-raise. You think the raiser is a solid player SO, you should have seen a re-raise pf with options 1, 2 or AK in #3! My guess was he cold called pf with JJ, or lessor pp or with nothing stronger than KQ or QJ. A solid player would raise on the flop with any of these hands.
I think you made a mistake by folding the winning hand.
November 26th, 2005 #4
You are correct that the player would have reraised with either QQ, KK or AA.
However I think he would have flat called with AQ. The more I think about it, the more likely I think it is that he was also holding AQ.
Had I check-raised as Irexes sugested I may have actualy got him to fold his AQ, if that's what he had. But if you knew what your opponent had the game would be so much easier!
November 26th, 2005 #5Originally Posted by WotaWaster
As for check-raising him off the hand - fat chance! No way is a good player is going to fold Top Pair Best Kicker and I doubt that even newbies would!
Even if you did figure him for A-Q, that's still only a tie pot - certainly no reason to fold! Sorry ole buddy, but you screwed this hand up real bad - learn from it and win the next one.
November 26th, 2005 #6
Would you always be prepared to go all in on top pair top kicker? He could have made trips or had an overpair. He may have smooth called with KK or AA to disguise his hand strength.
I don't think it's a dreadful mistake to fold in that situation.
November 26th, 2005 #7
tough one...i dunno. but sometimes i make crazy plays like him if I have an underpair. $20 because min raise to $16 would not seem strong enough, so he wanted to bump it up a bit more.
November 27th, 2005 #8
Ok, you bet $8 into a $13.50 pot, and he raises to $20.
Here's what I ask myself every hand:
1) How is my opponent playing (tight aggressive, loose aggressive, calling station, etc)?
A: "Solid". Not sure what this means, but let's assume he's tight aggressive.
2) What hands would my opponent cold call a raise with, based on how I think he's playing?
A: High Possibility - AJs, ATs, KQs, 99-22, suited connectors QJ-67
Low Possiblity - AA-TT, AK, AQ, (would have likely reraised) / suited connectors 23-56 and one gap connectors KJs, QTs, J9s, T8s, 97s (likely folded)
3) How does my opponent think I'm playing?
A: Don't know
4) What is the texture of the board?
A: Straight draw & spade flush draw. One large card & two very small ones (possible small set).
5) Given the above, what would my tight aggressive opponent have raised me on the flop with one player yet to act?
A: Highly likely: Any top pair or pocket pair hand other than QQ 44 55 (find out where he is), any set (scary board for a set), any overpair (scary board)
Somewhat likely: any straight flush, or nut flush draw
Not likely: unpaired overcards (KJ, AK), straight draw, weak flush draw, complete bluff
So based on how I think he's playing, I'm going to put him on a set, top pair, middle pocket pair, or strong flush draw. I'm going to discount (but not eliminate) a big set, overpairs, low pocket pairs, weak draws and a bluff.
So here's how we stack up:
I'm ahead: JJ-77, A or K high Flush Draws, QJs, QTs, KQs
I'm behind: 44, 55, open ended straight flush draws (statistically)
So I think I'm ahead, but there's only one way to find out. I repop it for $60. If he raises again, I fold. If he flat calls, I probably lead out again on the turn. I check/call the river if he's still with me and I haven't improved.
This hand should illustrate the power of position, and why playing this hand out of position is very difficult (and in the long run costly).
Last edited by Jason75; November 27th, 2005 at 12:33 AM.
November 27th, 2005 #9
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With two spades on the table, the flush had to be a concern.
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