Welcome to PokerForums.org

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

+ Reply to Thread
Results 1 to 7 of 7

Thread: Tough one

  1. #1
    Chaser
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    136

    Default Tough one

    What are the odds of flopping top pair? The odds of flopping a pair are about 1/3 I know, but that includes middle and bottom pair.

    It seems very difficult to calculate, and I have no idea how.

  2. #2
    Chaser
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Posts
    103

    Default

    I suppose that would depend what your hole cards are...the probability would change depending on what your highest card is

  3. #3
    Poker Expert Antneye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Location
    Long Island, NY
    Posts
    1,310

    Default

    This would be a nice numbers analysis to prove out generally accpetable beliefs for starting hand requirements.

    Seeing how the odds of hitting top pair go down with the declining value of your hole cards.

  4. #4
    Check Raiser Aces-o-8s's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Calgary, Alberta
    Posts
    778

    Default

    I'd be more concerned about the kicker the top pair comes with than the odds of it being flopped.
    http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php
    in the Hand Matchups section places Top pair(bad kicker) vs Top pair (good Kicker) at 12.7% vs 87.3% underdog.

    I'm not so sure this is even a calculable scenero without specific values known upfront. i.e if you had A-7o either could flop top pair but one would have a great kicker while the other has a lousy kicker. The odds of flopping either the A or the 7 could be calculated but how would you calculate 2 random unpaired pocket cards? Not sure it can be done.

  5. #5
    Poker Hustler Jason75's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    San Francisco, CA
    Posts
    1,230

    Default

    This has some inherent error in it, but I think it's miniscule. I've gotta run, so I can't type out the math. But this is what I get for flopping a pair and having it be top pair. This is for one hole card only.

    Kings 14.6%
    Queens 12.1%
    Jacks 9.8%
    Tens 7.8%
    Nines 6.0%
    Eights 4.5%
    Sevens 3.2%
    Sixes 2.1%
    Fives 1.2%
    Fours 0.6%
    Threes 0.2%
    Twos 0.01%

    Obviously this could get very complicated with 2 hole cards (KQ would have a different probability than KT, etc.).
    Last edited by Jason75; 11-16-2005 at 04:19 PM.

  6. #6
    Poker Hustler Jason75's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    San Francisco, CA
    Posts
    1,230

    Default

    Perhaps this is more useful - Here's the probability than your pair is going to be top pair when flopped:

    K 84%
    Q 70%
    J 57%
    T 45%
    9 35%
    8 26%
    7 18%
    6 12%
    5 7%
    4 3%
    3 1%
    2 0% (quads are the only way it's "top pair")

  7. #7
    Mike McDermott Av8tor009's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Southington, CT
    Posts
    3,334

    Default

    here's one... when you have pocket aces, you always flop top pair
    Lead Columnist, BluffAway Online Poker Magazine


    Online Tournament Wins: 11

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

     

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts