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11-12-2005, 10:30 PM
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Fish Food
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Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 25
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What do you do here?
Here is the scenario you are on the button blinds are 1/2 hundred 1 hour into a 3hour tourney you have 7k in chips. first to act folds next to act goes all in for 1400, next folds, next goes all in for 4800, folds around to you. You have AQ suited, you are sure the blinds will fold, the first all in is unknown player but weak, second all in is known player and you read his all in as j-9 pair, so what do you do?
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11-12-2005, 10:37 PM
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Chaser
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 103
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um, fold? Your not blind, so you have nothing invested.
Your queen could very well be a dead out, as could be your ace. I don't really see a reason to gamble in this situation.
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11-13-2005, 04:12 AM
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Check Raiser
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 724
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You're risking 4800 to win 6200. Pot odds of about 1.2 to 1.
You opponent could have a pair lower then Queens. He could have a bigger pair. He could have an Ace.
I would normally figure about a 10% chance of a big pair, 50% chance of a smaller pair, and 40% chance of AK.
With big pairs, you're in serious trouble. I'm going to guess 2/10 wins. A smaller pair you win 23/50. AK you win 10/40. Overall winning percentage of 35%. You would need to be getting odds of ~ 2-1 to call here. So fold.
As a note... with a laserlike read on his play... you will win 45/100. This means you need pot odds of 1.2 : 1 to call profitably, so if the pair of Jacks is the VERY BEST HAND he could possibly have, this is still a very marginal call, made worse by the fact that some percentage of the time the other all in will also win (he probably has a small pair also... when he hits trips it will reduce your winnings).
__________________
-You may not know this, but poker is a game of incomplete information.
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11-13-2005, 04:32 AM
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Banned
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Essex, UK
Posts: 2,389
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Calling allins with AQ is a very marginal play.
I know, I've done it incorrectly twice this week.
Wait for a better spot.
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11-13-2005, 06:28 AM
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Fish Food
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Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 25
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results
well i did have a good read on the 4800 all in player this is how it played out first all in had 7's the second had 10's and my AQ held up to win the pot i made the call because i figured i had the 4800 all in and if i lost to the other all in then that was going to okay i could comfortably loose that much but i figured i had an advantage over the 4800 so i would still win couple thousand chips even if i lost to the first all in. i guess it was a bad call that worked out.
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11-13-2005, 03:36 PM
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Poker Hustler
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,230
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I think you mean you drew out on them, not that your AQ held up (they had made hands, and the tens were favorites over you).
I wouldn't mind if you called the small stack all-in, but the second all in looks like an isolation play with a medium to big pair (turns out to be TT). You could just as easily been facing a dominating hand like AK, QQ, KK, or AA (to which you're pretty much dead meat). So I think your overcall is very dicey, particularly because you're not getting anywhere near your pot odds to call (against 2 smaller pairs, you're only 36% to win or odds of 1:1.8).
Think about it like this, you've busted your ass for an hour to keep ahead of the blinds by making smart plays. Don't gamble it all because you fall in love with that AQ with 2 players all in, just muck it unless you've got a huge stack and eliminating players makes a difference.
You got lucky here when you 1) weren't up against a dominating hand, and 2) drew out on them (yes, it was you who drew out here. the TT is 45% to win).
Learn from your mistakes, even the ones that work out well.
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11-14-2005, 07:16 AM
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Check Raiser
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Boston
Posts: 595
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Yes, "let's you and him fight" is a good strategy to adopt, especially in a tournament.
If the others knock each other out, that only benefits you by getting you closer to the money.
AQs is a drawing hand, and only the second best of those, too.
__________________
... can't sleep, blinds will eat me ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by KRE8R
Yvraine is not a "dude". She is a killer female poker player. Pray you dont meet her at the tables...
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