Lets say your opponent is on a 50% draw, and you are certain of it, and he'll fold if it is mathematically unfavorable to call. The pot is 500 dollars, and you don't feel like flipping a coin, so you force him out of the pot. How much do you bet?

Because I'm an idiot, I assumed to force a 50% draw into an unfavorable position, you should bet 51%, or 251 (500 pot remember) of the pot...but this isn't correct is it? Because the pot is now 751, and to call it will only cost him 33% of the pot (251 to call a 751 dollar pot - btw, lets just assume I'm all in, so there is no more betting to make it more expensive for him to see the river), making the pot odds favorable for him, inducing a call.

If I wanted to make him fold, would you have to bet the pot plus 1% (remember, this isn't a real player, he folds if pot odds indicate he should)?

PS: I'm new to poker, so don't flame, I realize this is fundamental - which is why I want to be certain!

If he is 50% to make his hand, then you cannot force him out unless you bet enough to convince him you have him drawing to much less than that.

Since he'll be getting 1:1 on everything he puts into the pot, plus there is already something in the pot.

There are not many cases where someone is 50% to make his hand, unless you are referring to before the flop.

If the pot is 500 then you need to bet 501 for him to fold.

The pot would then be 1001 and it would cost him 501 to call which is greater than 50% of the pot, so he would fold

Originally Posted by Phytopath

If he is 50% to make his hand, then you cannot force him out unless you bet enough to convince him you have him drawing to much less than that.

Since he'll be getting 1:1 on everything he puts into the pot, plus there is already something in the pot.

Yeah I realized my logic was screwed up before the post, but didn't correct it because I thought someone would still be able to understand what I meant - and I'd still get an answer...and it worked, thanks irexes.

No worries. I understand what you are getting at, but there is as stated the 1:1 issue.

So you bet (for example) 2000 to make a pot of 2500.

If he calls then half the time he loses 2000, half the time he wins 4500 making it a good decision for him to call regardless of how much you bet.

(Try 30% as the draw)

Originally Posted by PJ of TheGame

*Half the time he wins 2500. Winning the 2k he puts in doesn't help... he allready had it.

the 4500 didn't count the 2000 call. It was 4500 BEFORE he calls, 6500 after the 2000 call.

You're right, it does sound the way you say, I read it wrong. hahah, oh well :P

You mean he's 50% to make his hand on the next card? He'd need something like 23 outs for that.

If you mean that he's 50% to make his hand by the river (2 cards to come), then he's 25% to make it on this street. So he has a 1:3 chance of making his draw. Thus he must get 3:1 odds on his money (if we ignore the implied odds).

If we just want to give him slightly incorrect odds to draw, we should bet a little more than 1/2 the pot, which would give him just under 3:1 odds.

I will usually try and give my opponents worse than 3:1 when drawing against me. I usually bet 1/2 pot up to the whole pot or even much more, on a random basis (so they can't read my bets). I usually only bet much more at the end of a tourney when I can't afford to lose the pot, or if I have an unbeatable hand and think they'll call.